Vikings-Seahawks MNF Betting Preview: Will Seattle Keep Rolling ATS?

Vikings-Seahawks MNF Betting Preview: Will Seattle Keep Rolling ATS? article feature image
Credit:

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Danielle Hunter, Russell Wilson

Betting odds: Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks

  • Spread: Seahawks -3
  • Over/Under: 46
  • Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: ESPN

>> All odds as of Monday night. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: Despite the Seahawks getting about two-thirds of bets and 60% of dollars, the line has moved against them since opening.

The Vikings have settled in at +3 after opening at +3.5, with not much line movement at the major books over the weekend.

The over, which is getting 66% of bets at the time of writing (see live data here), bumped up a half point to 46.5 before settling back at 46. Mark Gallant

Trends to know: The Seahawks are coming off an easy 43-16 win over the 49ers in Seattle, but it’s been profitable to fade teams the week after a blowout win at home.

Since 2003, betting against teams that won their previous game at home by 21 or more points has gone 247-192-15 (56%) against the spread, per our Bet Labs data. John Ewing

Did you know? Kirk Cousins is 5-12 straight-up and 6-11 ATS in prime time, including 1-3 SU and ATS with the Vikings.

He’s 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in prime-time games on the road, losing five straight games in this spot over the past three seasons.Evan Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs vs. Seahawks’ CBs

The Vikings offense funnels through Thielen and Diggs as the two receivers have combined for 56% of the team’s market share of targets.

Thielen-Diggs
Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs

Seahawks cornerbacks Justin Coleman, Tre Flowers and Shaquill Griffin — ranked 65th, 83rd and 104th in Pro Football Focus grades, respectively — will all be severely outmatched against them.

Among receivers who have seen at least 50 targets this season, Thielen and Diggs both rank inside the top five in receptions, with Thielen ranking second in the league in receiving yards while Diggs ranks 17th.

Coleman has also been charged by PFF with allowing a league-high 314 yards after the catch (YAC), which Diggs and Thielen both excel at. Diggs’ 402 YAC is the third-highest mark in the league while Thielen’s 358 YAC is ninth. Justin Bailey

Which team is healthier? Vikings

Diggs (knee) is good to go for Monday night despite practicing in a limited fashion all week. The defense might not be at 100%, however, as cornerback Trae Waynes (concussion) is out and linebacker Eric Kendricks (rib) is questionable.

The Seahawks have a few more question marks to worry about: Doug Baldwin (hip) and Rashaad Penny (ankle) are each shaping up as game-time decisions. Starting running back Chris Carson (finger) will be available, but stud linebacker K.J. Wright (knee) is once again sidelined. Ian Hartitz

Metrics that matter: Yes, the Seahawks romped the 49ers last week, 43-16, easily covering the 10-point spread. But it doesn’t take much digging to find out that margin was a fluke.

Just look at the total yards … Seahawks 331, Niners 452. San Fran went 1-of-4 inside the red zone, hence why it only scored 16 points despite consistently moving the ball.

It was the same thing the week before: Panthers 476 total yards; Seahawks 397. Carolina went 3-of-7 inside the 20 and lost, 30-27.

The point? Oddsmakers are inflating this line to account for a betting public that only needs to see two stats before going all-in on Seattle: The Seahawks have won three straight, while the Vikings are coming off a blowout loss vs. New England. Scott T. Miller

DFS edge: Given Thielen has run 58.1% of his routes from the slot this season (per PFF), he’ll see the most of Coleman, who has allowed the most yards after catch this season.

Thielen has been the most consistent fantasy option on the Vikings in 2018, averaging 24.7 fantasy points per game. On the Thursday-Monday slate on DraftKings, Thielen boasts the second-highest ceiling projection among receivers.

Thielen will likely be a contrarian option in tournaments with most DFS players focused on games that are covered in the main slate. Bailey

Bet to watch: Vikings +3

Before the season I’d have looked at this game and thought it was a great opportunity to grab an underrated Seahawks team in one of the toughest places to play in the NFL.

Now, I’m thinking the exact opposite.

Winners of three straight, Seattle has gone 6-1-1 ATS in its past eight games. The public’s last impression of the Vikings, meanwhile, comes after a 24-10 loss to the Patriots — a game in which Kirk Cousins threw for just 201 yards with two picks against the 24th-ranked pass defense.

The Vikings are also at the top of our list of underrated teams entering Week 14, so I’ll let the overreactions mount and side with the books in a game they should be pulling hard for Minnesota. Danny Donahue


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.