Must-Win Games in Week 17: Don’t Fall Into the Obvious Betting Traps

We will be treated to a special NFL Week 17 in 2018, as we have plenty of meaningful football on Sunday.

And that's not always the case. Just look back at the 2015 and 2016 seasons when all 12 playoff teams had clinched headed into the final weekend.
This season, we have a number of teams playing for their playoff lives:

• Ravens
• Steelers
• Vikings
• Eagles
• Colts
• Titans

Others are fighting for critical seeding:

• Texans
• Patriots
• Bears
• Rams
• Chiefs
• Chargers
• Seahawks

In fact, there are only two teams locked into a seed entering Sunday's games:

• Saints
• Cowboys

That leaves more than half of the league, which has already been eliminated from playoff contention and is seemingly playing for nothing.

Naturally, we have a few matchups between these eliminated teams and the teams with "motivation." On the surface, one might want to rush to bet the team playing for something. That seems like a logical angle, but that is not only baked into the line, the impact is usually over-accounted for.

These are still NFL players that are playing for pride, job security, incentives and some just for the love of the game.

It's also the last game of the season for these teams and why not end the season playing spoiler, especially if against a division rival. These teams can also play loose, as all of the pressure lies on the other side with the team playing for their playoff lives.

Historical Results

This all sounds nice on paper, but how has it played out?

Dating back to 2003, teams that need to win to get into the playoffs (or would need help with a loss) in Week 17 have gone 12-19 against the spread (38.7%). And even more shocking, those teams are just 19-12 straight up on the money line in those 31 games. A $100 bettor backing those 31 teams that needed to win against "dead" teams in Week 17 would have lost approximately $1,350.

And if you focus in on favorites laying more than a field goal, the case for fading these "must-win" teams becomes even more glaring: 13-9 SU and 6-16 ATS.

If you aren't impressed by the overall sample size, eliminated teams playing teams that need to win in the final TWO weeks of the season have hit at over 60% in a sample size of almost 150 games over the past 20 years.

A perfect example is when the Giants (+10) easily covered an inflated line against a Colts team that basically needed to win last Sunday.

There have been plenty of infamous examples (that many seem to forget) of teams laying over a touchdown in Week 17 that need to win losing against terrible teams in shocking fashion.

Let's take a look at a few historical examples of teams that lost in Week 17 in games they had to win to get in against eliminated teams to refresh your memory.

2003: Cardinals (+7.5) Stun Vikings

The Vikings just needed a win in Week 17 over a 3-12 Cardinals team to clinch a playoff berth. Led by Josh McCown (yes, that one), the Cardinals scored a touchdown in the final seconds to win 18-17 and eliminate Minnesota from the postseason.

Bonus fact: The Vikings lost a Week 17 game in a similar scenario the following season to Patrick Ramsey and the 5-10 Redskins. Just take a look at what head coach Joe Gibbs said to his team to fire them up for this so-called "meaningless" game.

I'm sure Vikings fans don't want the reminder ahead of a huge home game against the Bears this weekend.

2006: 49ers (+10) Shock Broncos

All the Broncos had to do was beat (or tie) the lowly 6-9 49ers at home in Week 17 to punch a ticket to the dance.

Quarterback Alex Smith and the 49ers tied the game late to force overtime. And in a game the Broncos would have loved to even tie, the 49ers won on a field goal in overtime in the final seconds.

I'm sure Chiefs fans remember this game (and a few others that year) that somehow got them into the playoffs.

2008: Raiders (+11) Eliminate Bucs

With Jamarcus Russell under center and Michael Bush running wild, the 4-11 Raiders went on the road and ended Tampa's season. Believe it or not, the Raiders came from 10 down in the fourth quarter to hand the Bucs their fourth straight loss to end the season.

2017: Bengals (+8) Upset Ravens

As a Ravens fan, it pains me to relive the memory of a 6-9 Bengals team ending Baltimore's season on a last second Tyler Boyd touchdown. The Seahawks, who entered the day needing a win and help, also lost that same day as 8-point favorites against the Cardinals.

The Ravens will try to avoid that same fate this weekend against another division rival from Ohio.

We will see this scenario play out this year in three specific games this week:

• Eagles at Redskins (+7)
• Browns at Ravens (-6)
• Bengals at Steelers (-14.5)

And you're crazy if you think the Bengals, Redskins or Browns will lie down with a chance to spoil a rival's season.

While it doesn't fit the exact criteria, I think the Jaguars fit the same mold against the Texans, who are playing for the division. Both the Skins and Jags also have two quarterbacks who are basically auditioning for jobs as well.

Now, this doesn't mean you can't play a team that needs to win in Week 17 against an eliminated team. There certainly have been cases where a team that needs to win comes out and takes care of business from the jump.

(See: Saints' 42-17 win over the Bucs in 2013)

But don't just blindly play these games. You're generally not getting any value on these teams that "must win."

Good luck and always expect the unexpected in Week 17 of the NFL season.