Patriots-Chiefs Betting Preview: Trust Mahomes to Out-Duel Brady in AFC Championship?

Jan 20, 2019 07:10 AM EST

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady

Betting odds: New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs

  • Spread: Chiefs -3 (-120)
  • Over/Under: 56
  • Time: Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Sunday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets

Betting Market

Spread bets and dollars remain rather split for this game as the Chiefs are getting 57% of bets and 55% of the money at the time of writing (see live data here).

There’s also been an absence of significant sharp action. The line hit 3.5 on Friday evening, but it only stay there for about 18 hours before bumping back down to a juiced-up -3.

The over/under movement has been much more interesting.

The under was getting about 35% of bets and dollars on Monday afternoon … then everyone caught wind of the forecast.

By Tuesday afternoon, the under was getting 55% of bets and two-thirds of the cash, which helped drop the total down to 54. The forecast hasn’t looked as bad since then, and there’s been buyback has come in on the over.

The under is down to 47% of bets and 53% of dollars, and the total is back up to 56. Mark Gallant

Weather Report

Nothing to see here, move along.

Just kidding, folks.

The weather forecast has been the centerpiece of discussion this week, but the Arctic blast that was initially expected has shifted north. It’ll still be cold at Arrowhead, but not much colder than it was in Foxborough last week.

Original projections called for temperatures anywhere from -10 to 10 degrees, but models now show it being 20 degrees or even higher.

As was the case the entire time, wind will not be a major factor, as 9 mph gusts are expected at kickoff. Gallant

Trends to Know, Part 1

For cold weather games: Many casual bettors think frigid temperatures impact scoring and are thus more likely to bet the under when games are played in cold weather.

However, according to our Bet Labs datathe over is 114-80-2 (58.8%) in games played in temperatures colder than 30 degrees since 2003.

And when the temperature dips below 20 degrees in playoff games, the over has gone 14-5-1 (73.7%) since 1985. John Ewing

For Tom Brady as an underdog: If the Patriots close as underdogs, it will be Brady’s first start since Week 2 of the 2015 season as a pooch — a total of 67 starts ago. Since that matchup against Tyrod Taylor and the Bills (which he won), Brady is 43-23-2 against the spread as an underdog. Evan Abrams

Brady is 3-3 straight-up and ATS as a playoff underdog. He’s lost his past two games in this spot, both times to Peyton Manning.

Speaking of Peyton, Brady is 3-4 SU and ATS on the road in the playoffs, losing his past three starts SU and ATS … all to Manning.Abrams

For the Patriots on the road: New England is 9-0 straight up (including playoffs) in Foxborough this season but 3-5 on the road. This is the first time since 2009 that the Patriots have had a losing record away from home. Ewing

Brady has only three touchdowns and six interceptions in three career starts at Arrowhead Stadium.

He’s played in 42 different NFL stadiums over his career, and Arrowhead is one of only two that he has a worse than a 1.0 touchdown-to-interception ratio at. Abrams

Biggest Mismatches

When the Chiefs have the ball: Damien Williams vs. Patriots’ road rush defense

We talk about how bad the Chiefs’ run defense has been, and rightfully so. But the Pats’ run defense has been nothing to write home about this season.