Patriots-Dolphins Betting Preview: Weather Could Loom Large in Miami

Patriots-Dolphins Betting Preview: Weather Could Loom Large in Miami article feature image

David Butler II, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Josh McDaniels, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick

Betting odds: New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

  • Spread: Patriots -7.5
  • Over/Under: 47
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets

Betting market: There’s been some textbook pros vs. joes activity in this game. At the time of writing, this is what the betting market looks like (see live data here):

  • 71% of bets on the Pats
  • 56% of the money on Miami
  • Three bet signals on Miami

We’ve also seen some reverse line movement, as New England has moved from -9 to -7.5 and even -7 at some books.

The over/under has seen similar activity, with an overwhelming amount of money coming in on the under (88%). It’s no surprise the total has dropped from 48 to 47 since opening. —Mark Gallant

Weather report: Warm and windy. All those Pats fans heading down to Miami to watch the game will be in for a treat, as temps will be in the low-to-mid 80s. Winds will be blowing in the 14 mph range across the field, which could obviously impact passes downfield and field goals. —Mark Gallant

Trends to know: Since 2003, home underdogs getting seven or more points are 142-118-5 (55%) against the spread, per our Bet Labs data.

Late in the season, December to January, these teams are 62-45-4 (58%) ATS. Teams facing the Patriots in this situation are 10-6-1 ATS. — John Ewing

Since 2003, Tom Brady has played in 53 games with average winds of 10 mph or higher. In those games TB12 is 34-16-3 ATS (68%), which is 8% higher than his career ATS win percentage.

Brady is the most profitable QB in that spot, a whopping seven units ahead of Aaron Rodgers. — Evan Abrams

Metrics that matter: The Dolphins are averaging 20.3 points per game this season, which is 25th in the NFL. They’ll have a tough time scoring against the Patriots, who rank ninth in the NFL in points allowed (21.6 PPG).

Over the past two games the New England defense has been especially stingy — allowing just 23 total points.

Obviously having a good defense and Brady is going to yield impressive results. Since 2003, when Brady faces a team scoring fewer than 21 PPG, with his defense posting back-to-back impressive performances, the numbers are out of this world, even for the GOAT:

  • NE defense allowing fewer than 21 points in consecutive games: 27-11 ATS (71.1%, +15.2 units)
  • NE defense allowing fewer than 17 points in consecutive games: 16-4 ATS (80%, +11.7 units) — Evan Abrams

What happens to the Pats in Miami? Whether it’s the Miami night life or humidity, the Patriots have significantly underperformed on the road against the Dolphins relative to the rest of their road results.

Per Bet Labs, Brady is a career 71-43-3 (62.3%) ATS away from home for a 22.7% ROI since 2003. But he’s just 6-7-1 (46.2%) -8.8% ROI in Miami.

The Fish have won seven of those 14 meetings and four of the past five in Miami. — Stuckey

Biggest mismatch: Pats secondary vs. Dolphins receivers

One of the main reasons why the Patriots’ defense has been so successful this season is a result of their extremely strong corner play.

Per Pro Football Focus, the Patriots have two of the top-9 corners in regards to cover grade in the entire NFL in Devin McCourty and Stephon Gilmore.

Those two should lock up DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills, while J.C. Jackson is more than capable of sticking with Leonte Carroo in the slot.

If the Pats can blanket the underwhelming Dolphins receiving corps as expected, that should allow Trey Flowers and Kyle Van Noy to generate pressure against a decimated offensive line.

Remember that two of the three Pats losses came when Flowers left with a concussion early and didn’t play in the other. He’s playing at an elite level. — Stuckey

Which team is healthier? Patriots

The Patriots removed Tom Brady (knee) and Rob Gronkowski (ankle, back) from the injury report Thursday, so they’re both good to go for Sunday. The only other players at risk of missing the game are safety Patrick Chung (shoulder) and tight end Dwayne Allen (knee).

The Dolphins have a few more question marks to deal with, as center Travis Swanson (ankle), left guard Jake Brendel (calf) and Danny Amendola (knee) are looking questionable for Sunday.

The good news is Kenyan Drake (shoulder) and DeVante Parker (shoulder) are expected to suit up, but the defense will probably be without No. 1 cornerback Xavien Howard (knee).

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Rob Gronkowski

DFS Edge: Howard receives plenty of blame after allowing big plays, but he deserves credit for nabbing a league-high 11 interceptions since entering the league in 2016.

The Dolphins’ No. 1 cornerback has created a formidable one-two-punch with No. 1 draft pick Minkah Fitzpatrick in recent weeks, with Howard sticking to the left side and Fitzpatrick the right.

Still, Howard is considered week-to-week with a knee injury and not expected to suit up Sunday. Josh Gordon already had a decent floor considering he’s scored a touchdown or gained at least 70 yards six of his past eight games, but Julian Edelman is still set up the best inside vs. Bobby McCain — PFF’s No. 97 cornerback.

Gordon and Edelman cost $6,000 and $7,100 on DraftKings, respectively. — Ian Hartitz

Bet to watch: Under 47

This is mostly a situational play based on late-season trends and the early forecast, aided by sharp money indicators.

According to Bet Labs, divisional games with totals of at least 45 played after Week 10 have gone under 61.9% of the time since 2005.

In addition, the forecast is calling for steady 14 mph winds throughout the game, with even stronger gusts. Since 2005, unders are 454-358-10 (55.9%) in games played with double-digit winds.

At the time of writing, nearly half of the tickets are on the over, but 88% of the dollars wagered have come in on the under, indicating that the larger wagers are also banking on a lower-scoring game. — PJ Walsh

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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