Giants-Colts Betting Preview: Will Indy Make Quick Work of Big Blue?

Giants-Colts Betting Preview: Will Indy Make Quick Work of Big Blue? article feature image
Credit:

Thomas J. Russo, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Andrew Luck

Betting odds: New York Giants at Indianapolis Colts

  • Spread: Colts -9.5
  • Over/Under: 47.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Thursday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: The betting market is fairly split on this uneventful number of -9. The Colts are getting a bit more than 55% coming off their shutout of the Cowboys. The line has been bouncing back and forth between -9 and -9.5. — Mark Gallant

Trends to Know: The Giants were blanked 17-0 last Sunday. Since 2003, teams that were held scoreless in their previous game have gone 54-44-3 (55%) against the spread. If they are an underdog in their next game, like the G-Men, the record improves to 36-22-3 (62%) ATS. — John Ewing

Andrew Luck has closed as a touchdown favorite 11 times in his career, he is 10-1 straight up and 7-3-1 ATS. — Evan Abrams

Eli Manning has opened up as a double-digit underdog eight times in his hall of fame career (tried to sneak that in there), he is 5-3 straight up and 7-1 against the spread, covering the spread by 12.3 PPG. In the Bet Labs database, no quarterback has won more games straight up when opening up as a double-digit underdog than Eli Manning with 5 (right behind Manning? JaMarcus Russell with 4). — Evan Abrams

Playoff picture: The Colts are tied with the Ravens and Titans at 8-6, and according to our sims, they have the best odds to make the playoffs of these three teams (45.7%, compared to 39.3% for Baltimore and 42.0% for Tennessee).

Indy will be big Chargers fans on Saturday night, as LA hosts the Ravens as 4-point favorites.

Regardless of how the other Saturday game (Redskins-Titans), the Week 17 game between the Colts and Titans will have massive playoff implications. — Scott T. Miller

Biggest mismatch: Situational Offense

Look at the efficiency metrics and you wouldn’t think there’s a big gap between these two offenses: Both average 5.7 yards per play, and the Colts rank 12th in offensive DVOA while the Giants rank 17th. But the Colts are putting up 26.6 points per game while Giants have managed just 21.9, and it’s because Andrew Luck and Co. are better at converting third downs and finishing drives. The Colts are No. 1 in third-down conversion rate (48.4%) and No. 6 in red-zone conversion rate (67.9%) while the Giants are No. 26 on third down (34.6%) and No. 28 in the red zone (46.7%).

The Giants’ third-down and red-zone issues will of course be exacerbated if Odell Beckham (quad) misses another game. Eli Manning has converted on 48% of third downs when targeting Beckham but 37% when targeting all others, and Beckham’s four red-zone TD grabs is tied with Sterling Shepard for the team lead. — Chris Raybon

DFS Edge: The Giants boast a trio of underwhelming starting cornerbacks that rank 45th or lower among corners graded by Pro Football Focus: Grant Haley (45), Janoris Jenkins (47) and B.W. Webb (83). Overall, they rank 32nd in DVOA vs. No. 1 wide receivers this season.

You could say T.Y. Hilton has historically dominated indoors and I wouldn’t disagree.

  • T.Y. Hilton career per-game indoors (68 games): 5.1 receptions, 85.4 yards, 0.47 TDs, 38% games with 100+ yards
  • Hilton per-game outdoors (44 games): 4.2 receptions, 61.2 yards, 0.23 TDs, 20% games with 100+ yards

Hilton (ankle) was a game-time decision last week and only wound up playing 41-of-72 (57%) snaps. Be sure to monitor our Week 16 Injury Report for Hilton’s daily practice participation as well as his estimated and official game status.

Hilton costs $7,100 on DraftKings and boasts a massive 28.6-point projected ceiling. — Ian Hartitz

Which team is healthier? Colts

Odell Beckham Jr. (quad) is once again looking very iffy to suit up Sunday, while fellow receiver Russell Shepard (ankle) should also be considered questionable at best. Center Spencer Pulley (calf) and linebacker Alec Ogletree (concussion) each started the week off on the sidelines.

Bet to watch: Colts -9.5

Over the past two years, the Giants’ ability to score and move the ball through the air have been radically dependent on the presence of Beckham.

  • With Beckham (16 games): 21.6 points, 25.4 completions, 1.56 passing touchdowns, 0.75 interceptions, 280.4 yards receiving
  • Without Beckham (14 games): 14.8 points, 21.4 completions, 1.07 passing touchdowns, 0.86 interceptions, 213.4 yards receiving

If Beckham is out, the Giants could struggle to put up points. Rookie running back Saquon Barkley has had a great season, but the Colts are fourth in run-defense DVOA, and just last week they held a superior Cowboys team to zero points at Lucas Oil Stadium even though running back Ezekiel Elliott had 128 yards on 18 carries and seven receptions. Barkley could have a big game, and the Giants could still put up a goose egg.

On the offensive side of the ball for the Colts, wide receiver T.Y. Hilton has averaged 103.6 yards per game as a home favorite with quarterback Andrew Luck in the post-Reggie Wayne era (since 2015). And the Giants are dead last in the league in pass-defense DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers. Hilton has massive blow-up potential.

The Colts are fighting for a playoff spot in the AFC and have won seven of their past eight games. The Giants have every motivation to lose and could “earn” a top-five draft pick if circumstances break right.

I don’t like laying a lot of points, but I think the motivated Colts should be double-digit favorites. — Matthew Freedman


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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