Jets-Bills Betting Preview: The Weather Trends to Know
Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Josh Allen
Betting odds: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
- Spread: Bills -3
- Over/Under: 38
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV channel: CBS
>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets
Betting market: Surprisingly enough, the Jets-Bills game boasts some of the most interesting betting activity on this weekend’s slate. At the time of writing the Bills — yes the Bills! — are getting more than 70% of spread bets as the favorite (see live betting data here).
Pro bettors aren’t buying into the hype, though, as the Jets are getting about 51% of the cash.
Since opening, Buffalo has fallen from -4 to -3 thanks to that money discrepancy and a bet signal on the Jets. — Mark Gallant
Weather report: This is one of several games on the week that will have temperatures right around freezing. No high winds or precipitation is expected, though. —Mark Gallant
Trends to know: Jets-Bills is the coldest game in Week 14. The forecast calls for average temperatures during the game of 26 degrees.
Many bettors think cold temperatures lead to low-scoring games but that’s not true. Since 2003, in games played in cold temperatures (32 degrees or cooler) the over has gone 139-119-5 (54%), per our Bet Labs data.
If the over/under is 45 points or fewer, the over has been even more profitable. — John Ewing
The Jets are coming off their worst passing game in terms of yardage in 2018, and they now hit the road to face the Bills, who are allowing just 187.2 passing yards per game, which is the best mark in the NFL.
Teams that throw for fewer than 200 yards in their previous game and then face a team allowing fewer than 200 yards passing for the season are, surprisingly, 149-122-9 against the spread (+19.6 units).
When the offense throws for fewer than 150 yards in its previous game, like the Jets, they are 67-44-3 ATS (60.4%) in this spot, including 26-13-2 ATS (66.7%) in December or later.
Go figure. — Evan Abrams
Biggest mismatch: Bills Pass Defense vs. Jets Pass Offense
The Bills have faced the third-fewest pass attempts in the league this season (381), which is due in part to not holding many leads amid a -115 point differential but also a result of not being a particularly inviting defense to throw against in the first place.
Sean McDermott’s unit is allowing 5.5 net yards per attempt, No. 2 in the NFL, and its -14.8% DVOA rating against the pass is the league’s third-best mark.
The return of Sam Darnold (foot) is a major positive, especially after Josh McCown managed only 4.34 net yards per pass attempt.
But Darnold is coming off a four-week layoff, and his 5.82 net yards per attempt still ranks 31st of 34 qualifiers (counterpart Josh Allen is dead last at 4.87, though he may start to benefit from some recent addition by subtraction). — Chris Raybon
Which team is healthier? Bills
The Bills are almost 100% healthy with the exception of wide receiver Isaiah McKenzie (toe) and right guard John Miller (oblique).
The Jets aren’t quite so lucky, as Robby Anderson (ankle), tight end Jordan Leggett (knee) and running back Isaiah Crowell (toe) should be considered questionable for Sunday’s matchup.
The good news is Darnold (foot) is expected to once again be under center.
DFS edge: Since returning from injury two weeks ago, Josh Allen’s 0.80 fantasy points per dropback trails only Russell Wilson (0.84).
Allen isn’t doing much damage through the air, but he’s rushed 22 times for 234 yards and one touchdown in his past two outings.
In fact, Allen’s 389 rushing yards this season rank second among all quarterbacks, and he’s only played in eight games this year.
Bet to watch: Jets + 3
I will admit this number doesn’t have a ton of wiggle room.
The Jets lost to the Bills, 41-10, at home just a month ago, which helps explains why the public is all over Buffalo.
In a game that features two teams scoring fewer than 21 points per game with defenses ranked in the top-half of the league in pass defense DVOA, taking the the full three points is the higher percentage play. — Evan Abrams
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.