Schwartz’s Trench Report: Why I’m Betting Colts-Jaguars in Week 13
Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA. Pictured: Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck (12).
- Former NFL lineman Geoff Schwartz offers his best Week 13 NFL bet based on the battles up front.
- He's picking a side in the matchup between the red-hot Indianapolis Colts and the streaking Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Week 13 trench report is here! I hope you guys followed my advice last week and took the Broncos as they won outright. I’ve got one play this week that I love just as much.
Lets dig in.
>> All odds as of 5 p.m. ET on Friday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
- Spread: -4
- Over/Under: 47
- Time: 1 p.m.
- TV: CBS
If you’ve followed my picks this season, you know I rarely bet a short road favorite, but this game is different. Big picture: the Jaguars have quit. They have lost seven in a row, fired their offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett, and benched Blake Bortles.
Starting in Bortles’ spot is Cody Kessler who is 0-8 straight up and 2-6 against the spread as a starter in his career according to our Bet Labs data.
The Jaguars are likely going to lose, but will they lose by four or more points? I say yes. Playing on the road in the NFL is tough.
Your routine is off.
You feel uncomfortable.
However, there are keys to having a chance to win on the road: Physical front lines and strong tackling. The Colts do both well. Their offensive line is tied for sixth in adjusted rushing and third in adjusted sack rate per Football Outsiders. They’ve allowed only 11 sacks this season, tied with the Saints for the fewest in the NFL entering Week 13.
Jacksonville’s defensive line can still stop the run well, as they are tied for fifth in adjusted rushing and first in second level yards, which means they don’t allow many runs between 5-10 yards.
However, the Jaguars have struggled to rush the passer, which is something no one thought would be an issue heading into the season. They are 26th in sack rate and only have 21 sacks total on the season (Football Outsiders). If they allow the Colts to pass the ball, Luck will tear them apart.
On the other side of the ball the Colts have a clear advantage. The Jaguars offensive line is beat up. They are down multiple starters and just put their starting left guard, who was their biggest free agent pickup, on injured reserve.
The Jaguars offensive line is 15th in adjusted rushing and 19th in sack rate. Their sack rate is sure to go up without Bortles in the lineup who doesn’t move as well as Bortles.
The Colts’ defensive line is in the top 10 in rush defense and while only middle of the pack for sack rate, they generate tons of pressure, which can be more important than getting sacks.
The Bet: Colts -4.