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Week 13 Betting Market: Saints-Cowboys Spread, Over/Under on the Move

Nov 28, 2018 9:20 PM EST
  • With Blake Bortles (benched) and Leonard Fournette (suspended) expected to sit against the Colts (Sunday at 1 p.m. ET, CBS), the Jaguars have moved from +3 to +4.5 at home.
  • The Saints-Cowboys Thursday Night Football showdown (8:20 p.m. ET, FOX) has attracted professional action on both the spread and over/under.
  • The Carolina Panthers have struggled recently and pro bettors have grabbed the Bucs (+3.5/+4) as home dogs.

Five games left. Only five more full NFL slates remain in 2018 … time flies when you’re having fun. At least that’s what my mom always told me.

The slate of games this week is so-so, featuring a handful that should be solid. It’s not always the great games that see the most interesting betting action, though.

Here’s what’s happened thus far compared to last week’s lookahead lines from Westgate.

Big Moves

Indianapolis Colts (-4.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars made an interesting couple of moves following their loss to Buffalo by firing their offensive coordinator and benching Blake Bortles for Cody Kessler.

One would reckon that they’d give Bortles a chance with a new-look offense, but then again, I bet that Bortles would have more than 13 interceptions this season (he has 10) so I may be biased.

The Jags will also likely be without Leonard Fournette, who was suspended one game for his antics vs. the Bills.

With that said, hardly anyone is taking the Jags and the line has moved 1.5 points against them since opening. The Colts are getting 79% of bets and 88% of dollars at the time of writing.

Given how poor Bortles has played this year, don’t be surprised to see Jacksonville buy back at some point. Just how much worse could Kessler be, right?

Buffalo Bills (+5) at Miami Dolphins

Buffalo has four wins. That’s pretty shocking. The Bills have been outscored by 111 points, which is 63 points more than the next worst 4-7 team (Detroit), so perhaps it’s undeserved, but still shocking.

Miami has also been pretty lucky as far as point differentials go, as it is just one game below .500 despite being outscored by 60 points on the year.

With that said, sharp bettors don’t trust the Dolphins as sizable favorites, even against Buffalo. A steam move hit the Bills on Monday morning, which has helped push them from +6 to +5. They’re even getting some public love behind 54% of spread tickets.

Key Numbers

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (+7)

In less than 48 hours, there have been five Sports Insights Bet Signals triggered on the Cowboys (all at +7.5) and two on the Saints (both on -7).

Given the importance of the number seven, pros are giving the Cowboys a shot with the hook, but like New Orleans if they only have to lay seven points.

Based on the activity so far, it seems unlikely that the line will drop to 6.5 with just 21% of bets on Dallas.

Carolina Panthers (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This line can be found at a variety of numbers around the market, with some books offering Carolina-4 and the majority at -3.5.

BookMaker is one of the lone books that opened at the key number of three, but jumped to -4 about 10 minutes after opening.

Since then, the Bucs have attracted sharp action at +4. Like the NO-DAL game, this is pretty lopsided in terms of betting percentages, with Tampa getting just 30% as the home dog.

Over/Unders

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (53)

Just like the spread, the Thursday night over/under has seen some interesting betting activity. There are three Week 13 totals higher than this one, which is pretty surprising in its own right.

What I’d like to talk about is how the total is dropping. Eighty percent of bets are on the over, yet it’s dropped from 54.5 to 53.

Though the under is receiving just one out of every five bets, it is getting 40% of dollars — suggesting larger bets by sharper bettors.

The Saints are known for their potent offense, but the over has hit in just five of their 11 games this year.

Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers (44.5)

This is a pretty low total for Aaron Rodgers. Darn low. Since the start of the 2013 season, this would be just the ninth time a regular season game with Rodgers starting closes with a total below 45, according to Bet Labs.

The eight opposing quarterback in those games were:

  • Josh Allen
  • Mike Glennon
  • Sam Bradford (twice)
  • Matt Barkley
  • Brock Osweiler
  • Teddy Bridgewater
  • Matt Cassel

Credit:

Matthew Emmons, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Dak Prescott

Follow Mark Gallant on Twitter
@marky_money

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
56.5
-3.5
53
-3.5
-6.5
42.5
-6
41.5
44.5
-4
45.5
-3
44
-3
43.5
-2.5
47.5
-8.5
47
-8
46.5
-5
45
-5.5
38
PK
38
-2.5
46.5
-3.5
46
-3
44
-9
44
-9
44
-9.5
44
-8
47
-3
47
-2.5
36
-8.5
36
-7
-5.5
44.5
-5.5
45.5
--
--
--
--
54.5
-9.5
54
-9
-7
54
-6.5
51.5

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