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Week 11 NFL Betting Market: Bears-Vikings Bouncing Around Key Number

Nov 14, 2018 9:55 PM EST
  • Two of the biggest NFL Week 11 line moves are in Indianapolis and New York, with both point spreads moving toward the visiting teams.
  • Several games sit on or around key numbers, including the Vikings-Bears (-3) divisional showdown (8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC).
  • The Chiefs-Rams game is in jeopardy of being moved out of Mexico City, but it remains on the board with the highest over/under of all-time (63.5).

We’re entering the homestretch of the 2018-19 NFL regular season. Though it currently offers a much better slate of games than this past week, the game that we oh-so-lust for, Chiefs-Rams, has a chance of being postponed!

NFL fans around the nation are doing their best Nancy Kerrigan impression, asking the NFL and gambling gods why they would do this to us.

Move the Oakland-Arizona game to Siberia, by all means. Cancel it entirely. Hell, cancel the remainder of their seasons for all I care. Just don’t mess with Chiefs-Rams.

Here’s what’s happened so far on the young week of betting:

Big Moves

Not much doing here. I believe this is the first time all season that there hasn’t been at least one game with a line move greater than a point for this article.

Tennessee Titans (+2) at Indianapolis Colts: This game had moved 1.5 points with the Titans adjusting from +3 to +1.5 as of Tuesday morning.

However, there has been a bit of buy back on Indy since then. PJ Walsh has more details on the game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1) at New York Giants: Despite the Giants securing their second victory of the season in Week 10, early money has moved the line against them.

This line opened on Tuesday morning at NYG -2 and moved to NYG -1 in about 10 minutes. Close to 80% of the early money is on the Bucs.

Key Numbers

Minnesota Vikings (+3) at Chicago Bears

This line could move on and off the key number of three all week. At BookMaker, the line has already moved to 2.5 twice.

Some books are currently offering Chicago -2.5, with the juice close to -120, while others are at Chicago -3.

Houston Texans (-3) at Washington Redskins

Just like last week’s Washington game, I’m a bit surprised by the lack of support/respect for Washington. The Redskins are 6-3!

Why are they getting just 27% of bets as 3-point home dogs to Houston?

There has been two-way sharp action on this spread, with the majority of the bet signals coming in on Washington +3, according to Sports Insights.

Like Minnesota-Chicago, this game has bounced between 2.5 and 3 a couple of times already and may stick in that limbo all week.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-7)

At the moment, this is the only game of the week on the key number of seven.

Early bettors are fading Vance Joseph and the Broncos and riding the hot Chargers, who have won six straight and covered in four of their past five games.

Sixty-eight percent of bets have come in on LA, but there’s been a lack of sharp action on either side.

Money is split closer to 50/50, but it’s going to take some more assertiveness from bettors to get this number to budge off the key number.

Over/Unders

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Rams (63.5)

The highest over/under ever! This game better happen …

The slight majority of bettors like the over, but one oddsmaker believes that more folks will start piling on if the game is moved to Los Angeles.

Most books have kept the number at the opener of 63.5, but a couple have dropped it down to 63 or 62.5. I can’t find any book that is offering 64, which is where it opened in Vegas.

Even if the game remains in Mexico City, I’m curious to see how the field conditions will impact action over the course of the week.

Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals (41)

The aforementioned excellent Chiefs-Rams game features the second- and third-highest scoring offenses in the league. Raiders-Cardinals features the second- and third-lowest scoring offenses in the league.

Seriously, have these guys go play at Azteca Stadium and let the Chiefs and Rams play in Arizona.

Fifty-six percent of bettors are on the under in a game that features two offenses that combine for 30.1 points per game.

It can be found around the market at either 40.5 or 41, but I wouldn’t be shocked if it entered the 30s by week’s end.

 

Credit:

Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chicago Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky and Minnesota Vikings linebacker Anthony Barr.

Follow Mark Gallant on Twitter
@marky_money

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OPEN
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# BETS
56.5
-3.5
53.5
-3.5
-6.5
42.5
-6
41.5
44.5
-4
45.5
-3
44
-3
43.5
-2.5
47.5
-8.5
46.5
-7.5
46.5
-5
45
-6
38
PK
39
-2.5
46.5
-3.5
46
-2.5
44
-9
44
-9
44
-9.5
44.5
-7
47
-3
47
-3
36
-8.5
36
-7
-5.5
44.5
-4.5
44
-1
52.5
-2
52
54
-9.5
53
-10.5
-7
54
-6
51.5

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