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Week 12 NFL Betting Market: Sharps Backing Bills Against Jaguars

Nov 21, 2018 11:00 PM EST
  • Sharps aren't concerned with the Eagles' loss to the Saints as early money has jumped on Philly for its Week 12 game against the New York Giants (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX).
  • Wiseguys are also eyeing the Bills for their matchup against the Jaguars (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS).
  • Falcons-Saints game could close as the second game in the past week with an over/under of at least 60 points.

What a weekend, boys and girls. It’s too bad the Chiefs-Rams game couldn’t live up to the hype, though. I personally dozed off a few times.

Only 105 points? Boring!

Luckily, Colt McCoy will breathe life back into NFL bettors on Thanksgiving. Perhaps Chase Daniel and Mark Sanchez sightings will spruce up an afternoon with your loved and not-so-loved ones.

Big Moves

Washington Redskins (+7) at Dallas Cowboys

Never give McCoy more than a touchdown. Though the majority of sportsbooks have moved the Redskins from +8 to+7.5, BookMaker has moved from +9 to +7.

It’s one of a few shops across the market on the key number right now, but most books have Washington’s +7.5 heavily-juiced.

Right now, McCoy and the Redskins are commanding 61% of the spread dollars compared to 41% of bets, which helps explain the line move.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)

Philly was listed as a 9-point favorite against the Giants in Westgate lookahead lines last week, but that number is down to Eagles -6 following the team’s ugly loss to the Saints in Week 11,

Spread bets are split against New York, but Philly is getting nearly two-thirds of early spread dollars, which have pushed the number up from the opener of -4.5.

Key Numbers

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (+3)

Earlier this calendar year, the Jacksonville Jaguars were close to making it to the Super Bowl. Now, the line is moving against them vs. a Buffalo Bills team that has been one of the bigger laughing stocks of the league.

Then again, they do have the same record as Jacksonville …

Shortly after the line opened, Sports Insights’ Bet Signals triggered a Reverse Line Move on the Bills, moving Buffalo from +4 to +3.5.

The line has bounced from +3.5 to +3 a couple of different times, but sharp bettors certainly like Buffalo a bit more with Josh Allen expected to start.

The Bills are getting three-quarters of the early money despite just 35% of spread bets.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (+3)

Though the Steelers completed an epic comeback in Week 11 against the Jags, early sharp bettors have been grabbing Denver plus the hook where it has been available.

Two Bet Signals were triggered on Denver +3.5 and the line has since moved to +3 at most books.

Green Bay Packers (+3) at Minnesota Vikings

After the Vikings’ ugly performance in Chicago, bettors are buying the Packers in droves. With 71% of bets, they are currently the second-most popular team of the week behind the Patriots.

With big action buying Rodgers at +3.5, BookMaker has moved the line to +3.

The rest of the market is somewhat split, though, with several books posting Minnesota at a juiced up -3 and others holding the line at 3.5.

Over/Unders

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (60)

Sound the alarm, we have another over/under in the stratosphere! From the start of the 2003 season through Sunday’s games, there was one with a closing over/under of at least 60 points, according to Bet Labs.

If this game closes at 60 or above, it will mark the second time in three days.

More than 80% of bets and dollars are on the over, so it’s very possible that the aforementioned scenario does indeed happen.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (37.5)

Buffalo really shut folks up in its last game, scoring 41 points in a game that closed with an over/under of 38. Oddsmakers aren’t buying the offensive eruption, though.

Though 55% of bets are on the over, this total has dropped from 38 to 37.5 since opening.

Credit:

Steve Flynn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles.

Follow Mark Gallant on Twitter
@marky_money

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