NFL Power Ratings: Rams-Saints Spread Is Off By a Full Point
Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees
- Using The Action Network's NFL Power Ratings, we look at the teams the public is overrating and underrating in Sunday's conference championship games.
- Comparing our Power Ratings to current point spreads reveals the biggest differences in the perception of the betting market to real value.
The final four is set for the NFL Playoffs with the top seeds advancing to the conference championship games. The home teams are favored to reach the Super Bowl, but are the oddsmakers overvaluing home-field advantage?
By comparing the projected point spread created using The Action Network’s NFL Power Rankings to the consensus number, we can determine the most overrated and underrated teams in the conference championships.
Here are the spreads off the most, according to our power ratings.
All data as of Tuesday morning.
New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Rams
- NFL Power Rating spread: -4.5
- Current Spread: -3.5
- Value on: Saints
- Time: Jan. 20, 3:05 p.m. ET (FOX)
A majority of spread tickets are on the Rams as road underdogs. The public is likely backing LA because of recency bias. Jared Goff and Co. covered as 7.5-point favorites in the Divisional Round while the Saints failed to cash tickets as 8.5-point favorites against the Eagles.
It is important to not overreact to one week. Let’s not forget that in Week 9 New Orleans defeated LA by 10 points in the Superdome despite closing as a 2.5-point underdog.
Drew Brees has never lost a playoff game (6-0) at home under Sean Payton. The odds and the power ratings suggest the streak won’t end on Sunday.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. New England Patriots
- NFL Power Rating spread: -3.6
- Current Spread: -3
- Value on: Chiefs
- Time: Jan. 20, 6:40 p.m. ET (CBS)
Tom Brady has been favored in 67 consecutive starts dating back to the 2015 season. That streak ends this week as the Patriots are 3-point underdogs. One of the reasons the Pats are dogs is because of their struggles on the road this season.
New England is 9-0 straight up (counting the playoffs) in Foxborough but 3-5 on the road. This is the first time since 2009 that the Patriots have had a losing record away from home.
Brady has also struggled in Kansas City. The GOAT has only three touchdowns and six interceptions in three career starts at Arrowhead. In the 42 stadiums TB12 has played in over his career, this is one of only two in which he has worse than a 1-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.