NFL Power Ratings: Divisional Round Spreads That Are Off Most
Shane Roper-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott
- Using The Action Network's NFL Power Ratings, we look at the teams the public are overrating and underrating in the Divisional Round.
- Comparing our Power Ratings to current point spreads reveals the biggest differences in the perception of the betting market to real value.
The Divisional Round matchups are set for the NFL Playoffs. The top seeds in each conference are favored at home. In the Wild Card Round, only one team was favored by more than three points, but this weekend every game features a favorite of at least 4.5 points.
By comparing the projected point spread created using The Action Network’s NFL Power Rankings to the consensus number, we can determine the most overrated and underrated teams in the Divisional Round.
Here are the spreads off the most, according to our power ratings.
All data as of Monday morning.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Dallas Cowboys
- NFL Power Rating spread: -7.9
- Current Spread: -7
- Value on: Rams
- Time: Jan. 12, 8:15 p.m. ET (FOX)
A majority of spread tickets (see live odds) are on the Cowboys as touchdown underdogs in LA. However, history is against Dallas covering.
Since the ‘Boys last Super Bowl win in 1995-96, Dallas is 4-9 straight up (SU) and 3-9-1 against the spread (ATS) in the playoffs. This is the sixth time the Cowboys have reached the Divisional Round during this time — the team went 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in its previous appearances.
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs
- NFL Power Rating spread: +5.5
- Current Spread: +6
- Value on: Colts
- Time: Jan. 12, 4:35 p.m. ET (NBC)
The Chiefs have been dreadful in the playoffs as anyone who bet Kansas City will tell you. Since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970, KC is 4-16 SU and 3-17 ATS in the postseason.
The Action Network NFL simulations have the Chiefs winning on average by 4.1 points. The power ratings and the simulation model think that Patrick Mahomes and Co. are overrated.
New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- NFL Power Rating spread: -5
- Current Spread: -4.5
- Value on: Patriots
- Time: Jan. 13, 1:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
Since 2003, Tom Brady has been favored at home in the playoffs on average by 8.4 points, per Bet Labs. This is just the fifth time in 21 games that New England has been less than a 6-point favorite in Foxborough during the postseason. In the previous four games, the Pats went 3-1 SU and ATS.
New Orleans Saints vs. Philadelphia Eagles
- NFL Power Rating spread: -8.3
- Current Spread: -8
- Value on: Saints
- Time: Jan. 13, 4:40 p.m. ET (FOX)
Nick Foles has won and covered six consecutive games as an underdog. The Eagles backup quarterback has helped dogs go 14-1 ATS, covering by 8.4 points per game, in the playoffs since 2017.
Bettors shouldn’t bank on the dogs to continue barking. In the previous five postseasons, the pooches were 24-28-3 ATS.