Koerner: How I’m Looking to Live Bet Eagles-Vikings

I release my projected spreads and over/unders for each week's games on Wednesdays, comparing them to posted odds to identify the best bets. But sometimes the market is a little too close to my projections, and better value can be found in-game.

So which games could be worth a live bet in Week 5?

Let's take a look at the number we should look to grab in Eagles-Vikings.

Odds as of Sunday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Eagles at Vikings

Current odds: Vikings -3.5; 44
My Projections: Vikings -3; 43.5

The Vikings' main goal each week is to establish the run. They've enabled Dalvin Cook to have a breakout year, which has caused their star wide receivers to complain to the press.

But what does the Eagles defense do best? Stop the run.

Anytime we see a funnel defense that's set up to stop the opposing offense, it creates hidden value. In this case, there isn't much value in the pre-game lines as I'm right in line with them, but this sets up a potential in-game betting plan: If the Vikings happen to get an early lead of seven or more points, it’s going to set up a scoring environment that favors the under. If the Eagles get up early, it'll set up a scoring environment that favors the over.

My Projected Point Totals: Vikings 23.3, Eagles 20.3