NFL Power Ratings: Spreads That Are off Most for Wild Card Weekend

Jan 03, 2019 09:45 PM EST
Credit:

Dec Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson

  • Using The Action Network's NFL Power Ratings, we look at the teams public bettors are overrating and underrating for Wild Card Weekend.
  • Comparing our Power Ratings to current point spreads reveals the biggest differences in the perception of the betting market to real value.

The NFL regular season is in the books and the playoffs are here. By comparing the projected point spread created using The Action Network’s NFL Power Rankings to the consensus number, we can determine the most overrated and underrated teams in the Wild Card round.

Here are the spreads off the most, according to our power ratings.

All data as of Wednesday morning.

Wild Card Weekend Betting Values

Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts

  • NFL Power Rating spread: -3.5
  • Current Spread: -1
  • Value on: Texans
  • Time: Jan. 5, 4:35 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC)

Andrew Luck has dominated the AFC South, going 20-8-3 against the spread (ATS) in division games. Perhaps that is why a majority of spread tickets (see live odds) are on the Colts as underdogs in the first game of Wild Card Weekend.

While it is scary betting against Luck, history suggests the Texans have an advantage in this game with their strong defense. Indy has averaged 27.1 points per game (fifth in the NFL), while Houston’s defense allowed 19.8 points per game (tied for fourth).

Since 2003, when a defense allowing fewer than 20 ppg faces an offense scoring more than 26 ppg in the playoffs, the defensive team has gone 39-29-2 ATS per Bet Labs.

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens