- Using The Action Network's NFL Power Ratings, we look at the teams the public is overrating and underrating in Week 4.
- Comparing our Power Ratings to current point spreads reveals the biggest differences in the perception of the betting market to real value.
The Kansas City Chiefs began the season 15th in The Action Network’s NFL Power Rankings. Andy Reid’s team was breaking in a new quarterback and had question marks on defense.
Before Week 1, Kansas City had a rating of 0.5, meaning it would be favored by 0.5 points against an average team on a neutral field. After a blistering 3-0 start that includes leading the NFL in scoring, the Chiefs have jumped to third in the Power Rankings with a 4.6 rating.
Kansas City heads to Denver on Monday for an AFC West showdown. The oddsmakers have listed the Chiefs as 5-point favorites. According to the Power Ratings, Patrick Mahomes & Co. are one of the most overrated teams in Week 4.
By comparing the projected point spread created using The Action Network’s NFL Power Ratings to the consensus spread number, we can determine overrated and underrated teams.
Overrated Week 4 Teams
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants
- NFL Power Rating spread: Saints -1.3
- Current Spread: Saints -3
- Time: Sept. 30, 4:25 p.m. ET
After failing to cover as a popular pick the first two weeks of the season, New Orleans upset Atlanta as a 1.5-point underdog in overtime in Week 3. Following the Saints’ impressive win, nearly 70% of spread tickets are favoring Drew Brees & Co. as road chalk.
The public could be picking the wrong time to jump back on the Saints’ bandwagon as New Orleans has the largest discrepancy between projected and actual spread in Week 4.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
- NFL Power Rating spread: Chiefs -3.4
- Current Spread: Chiefs -5
- Time: Oct. 10, 8:15 p.m. ET
As mentioned above, the Chiefs are 5-point road favorites on Monday night. Since 1990, Kansas City has never been more than a 1.5-point favorite in Denver.
According to Football Outsiders, KC is No. 1 in offensive DVOA but ranks 32nd in defensive DVOA. If Mahomes isn’t able to guide the Chiefs to another 40-point outburst, this game could be closer than the oddsmakers suggest.
Underrated Week 4 Team
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
- NFL Power Rating spread: Texans +0.6
- Current Spread: Texans +1.5
- Time: Sept. 30, 1 p.m. ET
Houston is one of the most disappointing teams in football. Despite having playoff expectations, The Texans have started the season 0-3. However, the record is misleading as Houston has lost each game by one score.
Last Sunday, Deshaun Watson threw for 385 yards and two touchdowns, and J.J. Watt had three sacks, four quarterback hits and a forced fumble. If Houston’s stars continue those performances, it won’t be long before the Texans notch their first win.