Schwartz’s Trench Report: Why I’m Riding the Seahawks’ O-line, More Week 9 NFL Bets
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Seattle Seahawks guard D.J. Fluker (78).
- Former NFL lineman Geoff Schwartz offers his best Week 9 NFL bets based on the battles up front.
- He's picking a side in the Falcons-Redskins game and the Chargers-Seahawks matchup.
We’re back for Week 9 of the Trench Report. It’s the only place you’ll find gambling advice based on the battle in the trenches between the offensive and defensive lines.
Looking at the schedule, there aren’t many major advantages on the board in regards to line play, but I’ve targeted a two interesting matchups.
>> All odds as of 7 p.m. Friday ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins
Spread: Redskins -1.5
Time: 1 p.m.
TV channel: FOX
The Redskins have some at home for many reasons, including the resurgence of Adrian Peterson. I thought his age had doomed him, but he’s proving me and all the doubters wrong every weekend.
Peterson is averaging 4.6 yards per attempt with two games eclipsing 100 rushing yards. He has at least 90 yards on the ground in five of his seven games this season. Their offensive line has continued to gel this season and played through some injuries.
I love this match up because the Falcons are bottom of the league against the run. They have allowed nine rushing touchdowns, 4.81 yards a carry (26th in the NFL) and rank 31st in defensive rushing DVOA.
Adding to their woes on defense is their pass rush, which ranks 28th in sacks per passing attempt and is almost dead last in first downs allowed. Long story short, this Washington offense should move the ball up and down the field on Falcons’ defense.
The Bet: Redskins -1.5
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks
- Spread: PK
- Over/Under: 48
- Time: 4:05 p.m.
- TV channel: CBS
To start the season, the Seahawks look like a defeated franchise. Their defenses, one of the best in the NFL for years, was shaky and their offensive line was in shambles. Fast forward to Week 9 and all those concerns appear to be premature.
The Seahawks inserted D.J. Fluker and J.R. Sweezy at the guard positions and are mowing down opponents. Just look at their team rushing totals over their past four games: 171 vs. the Cardinals, 190 vs. the Rams, 155 vs. the 176 vs. the Lions. They’ve rushed for the third-most yards over that span (692) despite a bye week in the middle of that stretch.
Enter the Chargers who are 21st in rushing defense according to DVOA. Seattle will be able to run the football and that allows Russell Wilson the ability to run play action passes and hit deep shots.
Flipping over to the other side of the matchup and the Seahawks rank sixth in rushing DVOA. They are 11th in adjusted sack rate.
The Chargers’ offense can match up well with the Seahawks, but I think we often overlook the home-field advantage in Seattle. Russell Wilson is 39-11 straight up at home and with this game at a pick’em, it feels like we can bank on that record playing in our favor here.
The Bet: Seahawks PK