NFL Pro System: A Historically Profitable Betting Angle for Jets vs. Redskins
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Dwayne Haskins
- The Washington Redskins scored just nine points against the Buffalo Bills in Week 9.
- Using Bet Labs, we detail the smartest way to bet on NFL teams off poor offensive performances, including Jets vs. Redskins.
The Redskins offense struggled against the Bills in Week 9. Dwayne Haskins, in his first career start, went 15 for 22 but averaged just 6.5 yards per attempt and did not throw a touchdown.
Washington’s offense was kept out of the end zone the entire game and had to settle for three Dustin Hopkins field goals in a 24-9 loss. Little went right for the ‘Skins, but after a bye week, oddsmakers list Washington as a 1.5-point favorite against the New York Jets (1 p.m. ET, FOX).
Favorites usually receive a majority of spread tickets, but bettors are not interested in backing a team that can’t score. More than 70% of bets are on the Jets.
Odds as of Thursday at 10 a.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.
It is easy to understand a gambler’s hesitation to play Washington, but it is important to not overreact to one game. Teams are rarely as good or bad as they look the previous week.
Often teams that perform poorly one week will exceed expectations the next. Since 2003, NFL teams that struggled to score in their previous game, defined by fewer than 10 points, have gone 413-365-18 (53.1%) against the spread (ATS) in their next game per Bet Labs.
While you wouldn’t want to blindly bet every team in this situation, a $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $2,611 simply buying low here.
Oddsmakers know recency bias will affect casual bettors’ judgement. What the public last saw impacts how they wager the following week. As such, bookmakers will inflate the lines against teams that had a poor offensive game.
Contrarian gamblers have profited by going against the grain and betting low-scoring teams. This strategy is even more effective if there is lopsided public action:
Since 2003, teams that scored fewer than 10 points and are getting 30% or less of the spread tickets have gone 150-95-4 (61.2%) ATS. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $4,606 following this system.
Recreational bettors are on the Jets, but history suggests the Redskins can cover. Plus, there has been a reverse line movement bet signal triggered on Washington, which is an indication of sharp action.
Betting percentages change throughout the week, which can cause games to move in and out of this system. Be sure to save this Pro System and get updates as matches occur.
The Redskins were not the only team to struggle offensively the last time they laced up the cleats. The Saints were held to nine points in a surprising loss to the Falcons in Week 10, and before their bye week the Jaguars scored three points in a blowout loss to the Texans.
Depending on how the betting percentages shake out before kickoff, these teams could be matches as well for this system.
Week 11 Matches:
- Redskins -1.5 vs. Jets (1 p.m. ET, FOX)
- Jaguars +2.5 at Colts (1 p.m. ET, CBS)
- Saints -5.5 at Buccaneers (1 p.m. ET, FOX)