NFL Betting Tip: A Profitable Strategy for Browns vs. 49ers

NFL Betting Tip: A Profitable Strategy for Browns vs. 49ers article feature image
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Photo credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jimmy Garoppolo

  • The 49ers (3-0) are 5-point favorites vs. the Browns on Monday Night Football (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN).
  • Using Bet Labs, we share a profitable against-the-spread system for Browns-49ers.

The San Francisco 49ers are 3-0 and are one of two undefeated teams remaining in the NFL. Kyle Shanahan’s team is getting it done by running the ball and playing defense. San Francisco is averaging 175 rushing yards per game, second-most in the NFL. This is a huge improvement for the team that ranked last in rushing DVOA in 2018.

Last year, the Niners defense had just two interceptions — the fewest in NFL history. San Francisco was expected to see positive regression in the turnover category and it has. In the team’s three wins, the 49ers have five interceptions — second-most in the league behind the Patriots.


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The early results are impressive but are we sure the 49ers are good? To be precise, should San Francisco be a 5-point favorite against Cleveland on Monday (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN)?

It’s not all rainbows and sunshine for the red and gold. The offense has been inconsistent and turnovers have been an issue as Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown four interceptions. The team’s spotless record may also be a product of playing teams that are a combined 3-12.

There is also historical context that bettors should consider before placing a wager on Browns-49ers. San Francisco missed the playoffs last season and entered 2019 with modest expectations — 40-1 to win the Super Bowl.

The Niners have jumped out to a fast start, but bettors can often gain an edge wagering against such teams. According to Bet Labs, it has been profitable to bet against teams that didn’t make the playoffs the year before but have a winning record and are favored in the first half of the season.

Four weeks are in the books, and while that’s a quarter of the NFL season it doesn’t actually give bettors much information.

The 49ers might be in first place in the NFC West and are certainly one of the surprise teams of the 2019 season, but history says it shouldn’t come as a shock if the Browns cover on Monday Night Football.