2019 NFL Combine Prop Bet: Will A Player’s Nike Shoe Break?
Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: A Nike football cleat
- All eyes will be on Indianapolis this week as prospects try to help their draft stock at the 2019 NFL Combine.
- Will any have their Nike cleat break apart? Matthew Freedman makes his pick on the yes/no prop.
The 2019 NFL Combine is here and sportsbooks have released performance props. Our staff will be making official picks for prop bets, including whether a prospect’s Nike shoe will break apart.
Here’s the workout schedule for the various position groups:
- Friday: Running backs, offensive linemen, kickers, special teams
- Saturday: Quarterbacks, wide receivers, tight ends
- Sunday: Defensive linemen, linebackers
- Monday: Defensive backs
Now let’s dig into the Nike shoe prop that’s on the market as of writing, as well as our analysis based on research and official combine data going back to 2006.
Will a Player’s Nike Shoe Break Apart?
- Yes: +600
- No: -1000
Bet “no” and don’t think twice.
This is a great opportunity to exploit the recency bias and selection bias currently in the market.
Duke forward Zion Williamson blew out his Nike shoe in a prime-time game last week against North Carolina, injuring his knee in the process. Williamson is the presumptive No. 1 pick in the 2019 NBA Draft and one of the most exciting college basketball players of the past decade.
Because of the recency of Williamson’s incident and his high-profile status as a star, people will think the odds of a Nike shoe breaking apart at the combine are higher than they really are.
With -1000 odds, there’s a 90.9% implied probability that a Nike shoe won’t blow out at the combine, but I think the true odds are closer to 98.5%.
I’ve never read or heard of anyone’s shoe breaking apart at the NFL combine. Before Williamson, the last notable athlete I can find who blew out his shoe was Spurs guard Manu Ginobili in 2014.
Before Manu? Calvin … in the movie “Like Mike” in 2002.
Notice the trend? These are basketball players.
Basketball shoes are different than cleats, and the movements basketball players make on the court are different than the combine drills prospects will run on the turf at Lucas Oil Stadium.
And it’s not as if every prospect in Indianapolis is going to be wearing Nike cleats anyway.
I’d bet “no” down to -2000.
THE PICK: No (-1000)
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