NFL Week 17 Fantasy QB Breakdown: Pay Up for Patrick Mahomes

Dec 28, 2018 3:34 PM EST
Credit:

Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes

  • There are two quarterbacks who stand out for Week 17 NFL DFS who happen to be the slate's most expensive passers.
  • Below is a deeper dive on Patrick Mahomes and why he's worth paying up for.

Read the full version of this piece on FantasyLabs.

The final week of the regular season is here, and the NFL is still on pace for a record-breaking campaign with an average of 23.4 points per game per team. But scoring has dropped precipitously as injuries have mounted, game tape has accumulated, weather conditions have worsened, pace of play has slowed and divisional opponents have rematched.

Four of the five lowest-scoring weeks this season have been played in the month of December.

  • Week 13: 21.4 points
  • Week 14: 21.8 points
  • Week 15: 19.3 points
  • Week 16: 22.7 points

Year over year, scoring is up, but within 2018, we’ve seen a very notable downward trend, which could continue into this weekend, given that Week 17 tends to have a preseason-esque randomness thanks to the mixed motivations of each team.

Regardless, with no Thursday and Monday Night Football, we have the largest main slate of the regular season (15 games), and many teams are playing to win. The action kicks off on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET.

In this positional breakdown, I’m looking at two quarterbacks at the top of the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.

Note: This week especially, the players at the top of our Models might change radically as we get more news regarding how teams with no need to use their starters plan to deploy their players. Be sure to check our Models regularly for updates.

If you want more information on the rest of this week’s quarterbacks, subscribe to FantasyLabs, where you can access the large suite of analytical DFS tools I use to research every player.

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news feed.

For updates on Vegas spreads and over/unders, check out The Action Network Live Odds page.


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Model Quarterbacks

The two quarterbacks who stand out most in the FantasyLabs Pro Models just happen to be the slate’s most expensive passers. Both are big home favorites, and their games have postseason implications, so they are highly motivated to win. Thanks to the value available at other positions, especially running back, it’s feasible to pay up for a quarterback this week.

We’re focusing on the first of the two here.

Patrick Mahomes: Kansas City Chiefs (-14) at Oakland Raiders, 52.5 Over/Under

UPDATE (12/30): Running back Spencer Ware (hamstring) is officially questionable but expected to play. 

On the Week 17 edition of The Action Network NFL Podcast, we talked about Mahomes as the slate’s top cash-game option, and it’s not hard to see why we’re enthusiastic.

The MVP favorite heading into Week 17, Mahomes has spent the past few months painting a masterpiece of a campaign: He leads the league with his 9.5 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) and an 81.5 Total QBR. With just 184 yards and two touchdowns, he’ll be only the second quarterback with a 5,000-yard, 50-touchdown passing campaign. The first was Peyton Manning in his record-setting 2013 MVP campaign.

Even with a mediocre performance this week, Mahomes will finish the season with the most productive fantasy season in NFL history.

Mahomes is dominating the league with a position-high 39.5 DraftKings points per game. For context: Roethlisberger is second, and he trails Mahomes by almost five points. Mahomes easily leads the position with an obscene +10.03 Plus/Minus, and his emergence has been the story of the season.

Mahomes’ weekly consistency is outstanding. Not once has he scored fewer than 18 DraftKings points.

  • Week 1: QB4, 28.3 DraftKings points
  • Week 2: QB2, 41.8 DraftKings points
  • Week 3: QB7, 28.3 DraftKings points
  • Week 4: QB11, 25.9 DraftKings points
  • Week 5: QB14, 20.8 DraftKings points
  • Week 6: QB2, 35.7 DraftKings points
  • Week 7: QB1, 36.8 DraftKings points
  • Week 8: QB2, 30.0 DraftKings points
  • Week 9: QB4, 30.8 DraftKings points
  • Week 10: QB13, 20.1 DraftKings points
  • Week 11: QB1, 43.9 DraftKings points
  • Week 13: QB2, 33.0 DraftKings points
  • Week 14: QB5, 24.8 DraftKings points
  • Week 15: QB8, 18.0 DraftKings points
  • Week 16: QB7, 28.2 DraftKings points

Mahomes has thrown for either 300 yards or three touchdowns in all but two games this season.

Although they have lost three of their past five games, the Chiefs still lead the AFC, and on a per-game basis they’ve …

  • Outscored their implied total by 6.5 points (No. 1 in NFL)
  • Exceeded their game total by 9.9 points (No. 1)

The Chiefs rank first in scoring at 35.3 points per game, and Mahomes is foundational to their success. No quarterback in NFL history has dominated in his first 16 starts the way Mahomes has.

The Chiefs have a slate-high implied Vegas total of 33.0 points.

On top of that, Mahomes has a great matchup with the Raiders, against whom he passed for 295 yards, rushed for 52 yards and scored four touchdowns earlier this season. No quarterback has scored more fantasy points against the Raiders than the 33.0 DraftKings points Mahomes put up in Week 13, and the Chiefs have the slate’s most explosive passing-game matchup.

It’s hard to overstate just how good this spot is for Mahomes: The Chiefs have the week’s highest pass funnel rating at 88.71. Mahomes should look to attack the Raiders through the air early and often.

The Raiders rank 31st against the pass with a 27.8% mark in Football Outsiders’ DVOA, and they rank dead last against tight ends (44.4% DVOA).

If you roster Mahomes in guaranteed prize pools, you might want to use our Lineup Builder to stack him with tight end Travis Kelce, both of whom are one of our top stacks of the slate. Since 2014, quarterbacks on average have had a 0.47 correlation with their No. 1 tight ends, but Kelce’s quarterbacks have had a 0.78 correlation with him.

One drawback to rostering Mahomes is that he’s in Kansas City. While playing at home is normally advantageous, that’s not necessarily the case with Mahomes and the Chiefs. In the Andy Reid era (since 2013), no home team has made under bettors more money than the Chiefs have with their 17-29-1 over/under record, good for a 22.9% return on investment (per Bet Labs).

The outdoor and raucous Arrowhead Stadium is a hard place to play, especially once the weather is cold, and it’s not just road teams that have played worse in Kansas City this season (per the RotoViz Game Splits App).

  • Chiefs Home Games: 52.86 o/u, 52.14 points scored, Chiefs 32, Opponents 20.14
  • Chiefs Road Games: 55.19 o/u, 72.87 points scored, Chiefs 38.25, Opponents 34.62

Throughout the Reid era, the Chiefs have scored 2.81 fewer points at home and opponents have scored 6.04 fewer points in Kansas City.

Divisional games after Week 10 have a 286-365-15 over/under record since 2006. It’s possible that the Chiefs could score fewer points than expected given the circumstances.

Even so, Mahomes is extremely unlikely to have a poor game, given that he has position-high median and floor projections in our Models. And his upside is significant.

With his unrivaled ball velocity (60 mph), Mahomes has made a habit of attacking defenses deep. He’s No. 1 in the league with 42 deep completions (20-plus yards) and 1,358 deep-passing yards. Mahomes likes to air it out.

For a player with only 16 career starts, he’s been incredibly poised in the pocket. Mahomes has been pressured on 35.8% of his dropbacks, but his 11.8% sack rate on such plays is the league’s second-lowest mark. And with a clean pocket, he’s No. 1 with a 134.0 QB Rating (Pro Football Focus).

Reid has done a magnificent job of scheming to Mahomes’ strengths, streamlining his reads and enabling him to get the ball out quickly. When Mahomes can simply take the snap, focus immediately on his receivers and throw the ball, he’s maybe the best quarterback in the league. On passes with no play action, he’s No. 1 with a 116.7 QB Rating. When holding the ball for fewer than 2.5 seconds in the pocket, he’s again No. 1 with a 131.4 QB Rating (PFF).

Running back Spencer Ware (shoulder) practiced in full earlier in the week and is likely to return to action. With the exception of wide receiver Sammy Watkins (foot), the Chiefs are relatively healthy on offense. Mahomes should have close to his full arsenal of weapons.

Although the Raiders have bizarrely had success against No. 1 wide receivers, ranking second in pass defense against them (-31.5% DVOA), the Raiders now have a significant matchup disadvantage: They will certainly be without cornerback Daryl Worley (shoulder, injured reserve), and corner Gareon Conley (concussion) missed last week and is uncertain for this week. Absent their two starting outside corners, the Raiders will be highly exploitable.

On Sunday morning I will probably bet the over on Mahomes’ touchdown prop. He’s gone over 1.5 in 13 games this season and over 2.5 in 10.

Meanwhile, the Raiders have allowed every starting quarterback they’ve faced to throw multiple touchdowns except for the unimpressive Case Keenum (Week 2), run-focused Lamar Jackson (Week 12) and backup Jeff Driskel (Week 15).

To find the best bets in the props market, use our Player Props Tool, which is powered by our industry-leading projections. Since Week 1, the props with a bet quality of 10 have gone 222-103-12, good for a 66% win rate. Without question, you should supplement your DFS action with player props.

Mahomes has position-high marks with his 99% Bargain Rating, 10 Pro Trends and +5.12 Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, where he’s the No. 1 quarterback in the Bales, CSURAM88, Levitan, Koerner, Raybon and SportsGeek Models.

Read the full version of this piece on FantasyLabs.

Week 17 Positional Breakdowns

Be sure to read the other Week 17 positional breakdowns.

For more in-depth NFL analysis information, check out The Action Network.



Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.

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