- Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin stands out in the FantasyLabs NFL DFS Models as great play for Week 13.
- In this piece, I'll highlight a few key situations to target this week, but check out the full piece on FantasyLabs for more.
The bye weeks are over, and the 2018 NFL season is still on pace for a record-breaking campaign with an average of 24.2 points per game per team. The action continues with a 13-game main slate that kicks off on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET.
In this positional breakdown, I’m looking at four wide receivers at the top of the individual Pro Models that Jonathan Bales, Peter Jennings (CSURAM88), Adam Levitan, Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Kevin McClelland (SportsGeek) and I have constructed.
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Model Wide Receivers
Aside from the high-priced, obvious guys, there are two wide receivers who catch my eye this week.
- T.Y. Hilton: $6,000 DraftKings; $7,600 FanDuel
- Chris Godwin: $3,900 DraftKings; $5,400 FanDuel
T.Y. Hilton: Indianapolis Colts (-4) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 47 Over/Under
UPDATE (12/1): Center Ryan Kelly (knee) and tight end Mo Alie-Cox (calf) are out. Running back Marlon Mack (concussion) is questionable but practiced in full on Thursday and Friday. Wide receiver Chester Rogers (groin) is questionable after practicing fully early in the week but missing the Friday practice. Tight end Erik Swoope (knee) is questionable after a limited practice on Friday.
Jaguars cornerback Jalen Ramsey (knee) is questionable after missing practice all week. He’s a true game-time decision who seems unlikely to play.
While it might seem reckless to invest in a receiver facing the Jaguars, the Hilton thesis is pretty straightforward.
- Hilton is a big-play specialist with deep speed (4.34-second 40 time) and a team-high 73 targets: He has the volatility and opportunity to go off in any game.
- Hilton is an under-appreciated touchdown threat: He’s top-six in the league with nine targets inside the 10-yard line.
- Hilton won’t be popular: In each of his past three games against the Jags, he’s had an ownership rate of less than 5%.
- Tight end Jack Doyle (kidney, IR) is out: A share of his vacated 5.5 targets per game could go to Hilton.
- Quarterback Andrew Luck is playing at an elite level: He’s thrown three-plus touchdowns in eight straight games.
- Shutdown cornerback Jalen Ramsey (knee) missed practice all week and is extremely questionable to suit up: In Week 10, Ramsey shadowed Hilton, and the Jags held him to 3-77-0 receiving on seven targets.
It’s hard to roster Hilton on the road and outdoors given his career-long per-game splits.
- Road (49 games): 54.1% catch rate, 4.3 receptions, 66.9 yards receiving, 0.35 touchdowns
- Home (54 games): 60.0% catch rate, 4.9 receptions, 78.9 yards receiving, 0.43 touchdowns
- Outdoors (39 games): 53.7% catch rate, 4.1 receptions, 59.9 yards receiving, 0.26 touchdowns
- Indoors (64 games): 59.3% catch rate, 4.9 receptions, 81.2 yards receiving, 0.47 touchdowns
And his production against the Jags since last season hasn’t been inspiring.
- Against Jags (three games): 38.1% catch rate, 2.7 receptions, 51.6 yards receiving, 0.33 touchdowns
- Against all other teams (22 games): 58.3% catch rate, 4.3 receptions, 69.1 yards receiving, 0.41 touchdowns
But if Ramsey is out or limited, the Jags will be vulnerable on defense, and over their seven-game losing streak they’ve allowed some big performances.
For the season, they’ve held opposing wide receivers to a bottom-five mark of 31.9 DraftKings points per game, but just last week they allowed Bills wide receiver Robert Foster — an undrafted rookie who did almost nothing in college — to go off for a 2-94-1 receiving line on three targets.
Plus, Hilton has run 29.8% of his routes this season from the slot, where Ramsey and fellow outside cornerback A.J. Bouye rarely line up. In the slot, Hilton will match up with corner D.J. Hayden, who is imminently beatable. He missed Weeks 3-9, but in his five games this season he’s allowed an 81.8% catch rate.
On top of that, the Jags are in disarray on offense.
Just this week, they fired offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and benched quarterback Blake Bortles. In the long run, these moves will probably be beneficial, but this week the Jags could struggle more than usual on offense, failing to sustain drives. As a result, the Colts could have more opportunities and Hilton could have additional targets.
In his three games since the Week 9 bye, Hilton has a 19-357-2 receiving stat line on 26 targets. In strong form, Hilton is the No. 1 DraftKings wide receiver in the Levitan Model.
Chris Godwin: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) vs. Carolina Panthers, 54 O/U
UPDATE (12/1): Wide receiver DeSean Jackson (thumb) is out. Running back Peyton Barber (ankle, shoulder) will play after a full practice on Friday.
Field-stretching wide receiver DeSean Jackson (thumb) is out, which means that Godwin a locked-in full-time player this week. As such, Sacred Victorious warrants strong consideration in both cash games and guaranteed prize pools. He will be one of the slate’s most popular players.
A versatile receiver with the ability to win deep because of his speed (4.42-second 40) and in contested situations because of his size (6-foot-1, 209 pounds), Godwin is an important contributor to a Bucs team that is first with 4,997 scrimmage yards, 3,914 net passing yards and 289 first downs, second with 449 pass attempts and fourth with 27 passing touchdowns and 6.6 yards per play.
Of course, the team has also been hamstrung by its issues with turnovers and the constant changes at the quarterback position.
The Bucs are dead last in the league with 23 interceptions, 29 turnovers and a 22.3% turnover rate on a per-drive basis. A large part of that is because of quarterback Jameis Winston, who has 11 interceptions and five fumbles in just six games, only four of which have been starts.
But last week Winston managed to get through a game without throwing an interception for the first time this season, and he’s in a good spot this week, which bodes well for Godwin.
The Panthers are 27th in pass defense (21.6% in Football Outsiders’ DVOA), and the Bucs-Panthers game leads the slate with an 76.21 pass funnel rating.
Thanks to their magnificent combination of high-scoring offense (26.7 points per game) and basement-level defense (30.7 points per game allowed), the Bucs have an 8-3 over/under record this season, which is the best mark in the league for over bettors (per Bet Labs). I’m betting this game makes it nine.
No. 1 wide receiver Mike Evans is likely to see shadow coverage from cornerback James Bradberry, as he did in Week 9, which means that Godwin will likely run most of his routes against rookie second-rounder Donte Jackson (quad), who exited last week with an injury after just one snap.
Jackson will play this week, but he could be limited, and he’s struggled in his first year, allowing a 69.8% catch rate in his coverage. His worst game of the season came against the Bucs in Week 9, when he allowed a 7-115-1 receiving line on eight targets.
Godwin had a middling 2-40-0 performance on three targets against the Panthers in Week 9, but he’s a key player in a wide receiver unit that leads the league with 268 yards and 54.5 points per game in point-per-reception scoring. A second-year breakout-in-process, Godwin has hit double-digit targets in only one game, but he’s top-five in the league with nine targets inside the 10-yard line.
With D-Jax out, Godwin is likely to hit season-high marks in snaps and routes. In his three games last season without either Evans or Jackson, Godwin had his best performances of the season and saw his highest snaps counts.
- Week 10 (vs. Jets): 11.8 DraftKings points, +7.18 Plus/Minus, 97.2% offensive snaps, 5-68-0 receiving on 10 targets
- Week 16 (at Panthers): 12.8 DraftKings points, +8.18 Plus/Minus, 84.4% offensive snaps, 3-98-0 receiving on six targets
- Week 17 (vs. Saints): 21.7 DraftKings points, +19.76 Plus/Minus, 69.9% offensive snaps, 7-111-1 receiving on 12 targets
Godwin is the No. 1 DraftKings wide receiver in the Bales, CSURAM88, Koerner, Raybon and SportsGeek Models.
Positional Breakdowns & News
Be sure to read the other Week 13 positional breakdowns.
For more in-depth NFL analysis information, check out The Action Network.