Rovell: $55,000 Bet Hits Packers-49ers Immediately After Line Opens in Vegas
Getty Images. Pictured: Jimmy Garoppolo, Deebo Samuel
Early Championship Game Bets
The AFC and NFC Championship Games are set: Titans at Chiefs and Packers at 49ers. Some notable early action:
10 p.m. ET: The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Packers-49ers spread in the fourth quarter of the Packers’ victory over the Seahawks — and it didn’t take long for a huge bet to come in.
One bettor put $55,000 on the 49ers -7. The bet would win $50,000 if San Fran covers against Green Bay for the second time this season.
The SuperBook did not move the spread after taking the bet — it remains 49ers -7. The over/under is at 45 at the time of writing.
Some huge bets are rolling into sportsbooks all over America prior’s to Sunday’s Texans-Chiefs and Seahawks-Packers NFL Divisional Round games. Let’s dig in.
9:20 p.m. ET: Right before kickoff, the MGM Sportsbook in Biloxi, Miss., took a $250,000 on Under 45.5 in the Seahawks-Packers game — a particularly large wager for a total. For a while on Sunday night, the wager looked to be in good shape: There were only 17 points scored in the game’s first 28 minutes.
But with Russell Wilson & Co. down 18 points at half, the Seahawks came out firing and the points soon followed. The two teams combined to score 27 points in the first 21 minutes of the second half. When Marshawn Lynch scored with 9:37 to go in the fourth quarter, this $250,000 bet was officially dead.
7 p.m. ET: Usually we see the really big six-figure bets come in on spreads, moneylines or teasers/parlays, but MGM Sportsbook tweeted that it took a $250,000 bet on Under 45.5 in Seahawks-Packers. The bet came in “right before kickoff,” according to the sportsbook.
At the time of writing, the Packers lead, 7-0, with five minutes remaining in the first quarter.
To summarize, here are the other huge wagers we’ve heard of for Seahawks-Packers:
- $201,000 to win $150,000: Teaser of Chiefs -2.5 over Texans (WIN) and Seahawks +11 over Packers at DraftKings
- $100,000 to win $175,000: Seahawks moneyline bet at William Hill
5:10 p.m. ET: In addition to the massive $201,000 teaser detailed below that came in on the Seahawks, Seattle got hit with more six-figure action leading up to its kickoff against the Packers. A bettor at William Hill wagered $100,000 on the Seahawks to win at +175 odds, meaning the bet would profit $175,000 if Seattle advances to the NFC title game against the 49ers.
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4:30 p.m. ET: With the Texans leading 21-0 over the Chiefs, a bettor at William Hill threw down a $22,990 live bet on the Texans to win at -400 odds. It would net $5,747.50 if Houston wins. At the time of writing, the Texans have been outscored 41-3 since that wager was placed.
- $201,000 to win $150,000: Teaser of Chiefs -2.5 over Texans and Seahawks +11 over Packers at DraftKings
- $50,000 to win $130,000: Parlay of Texans +9.5 and Texans-Chiefs Over 49.5 at FanDuel
- $17,000 to win $62,900: Texans moneyline at FanDuel
1 p.m. ET: The betting public will not be deterred. A day after seeing everyone’s favorite favorite, the Baltimore Ravens, lose outright to the Tennessee Titans in stunning fashion, folks are lining up to bet on the Chiefs, another double-digit favorite.
The SuperBook in Las Vegas is seeing the same thing, per Jeff Sherman, who told me that his book’s biggest need today is the Texans. Why? Houston has yet to receive much support from big-money professional players at the Westgate, and the public is all-in on K.C.
Plus, Westgate took one of its biggest bets of the day — $55,000 to win $50,000 — on the Chiefs -9.5.
CG Technology in Vegas also needs a Texans cover. It took a $30,000 bet at even money on Chiefs -7 in the first half (would profit $30,000), along with a $20,000 wager from the same bettor on Over 24.5 points in the first half (pays out $19,000).
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The later game today isn’t nearly as lopsided — 53% of the spread bets are on the Packers -4.5 vs. Seahawks at FanDuel.
Sharp bettors at Westgate are laying the points with the Packers, according to Sherman. The book took a $33,000 bet on Packers -4. It would pay out $30,000 if Green Bay covers at home.
11:30 p.m. ET: The Titans pulled off their second mega-upset in as many weeks, winning 28-12 vs. the Ravens after closing as double-digit underdogs.
The win was huge for sportsbooks and bad news for big-money bettors who bet the Ravens’ moneyline.
Here are just a few tangible examples: One bettor at MGM Sportsbook in Las Vegas was so confident the Ravens that he plopped down $420,000 bet on Baltimore’s moneyline. The odds were -420, meaning the bettor would’ve netted $100,000.
Instead, he took a $420,000 bath.
A different bettor at William Hill lost $90,000 betting the -440 moneyline.
A different bettor at the South Point lost $84,000 laying -480 odds.
A different bettor at DraftKings lost $23,800 on -445.
It’s gameday and the big bets are starting to roll in…
7:20 p.m. ET: It didn’t come without a sweat, but a bettor at William Hill cashed a $38,500 ticket on the Under 45 in Vikings-49ers. There were 21 points scored in the game’s first 23 minutes, but only 14 points after that, including just three in the fourth quarter.
5:40 p.m. ET: MGM Sportsbook in Las Vegas confirmed that it took a $420,000 bet on the Ravens moneyline at -420 odds. If the Birds win, the bettor will net $100,000.
This is the latest evidence that books will be massive Titans fans on Saturday night, as the general public rushes out to bet the dominant Ravens to win outright and to cover the spread.
As John Murray from the SuperBook told me earlier this week, “Everyone has the favorites in parlays, but it seems like every single parlay has Baltimore in it.”
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1:26 p.m. ET: We’ve talked a lot this week about the windy weather hitting the Baltimore area tonight. Windy weather has historically led to lower-scoring games, so it’s no surprise to see two large wagers from different bettors at DraftKings hit the Titans-Ravens:
- $55,000 to win $50,000 on Titans-Ravens Under 47.5
- $50,000 to win $45,454 on Titans-Ravens Under 47.5
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1:23 p.m. ET: We’ve got a big bet on the Titans moneyline at the SuperBook in Las Vegas: $15,000 at +350 odds on Tennessee to pull the road upset over Baltimore. The bet is to win $52,500.
1:14 p.m. ET: The early game — Vikings at 49ers — is attracting good two-way action at the SuperBook. The shop took $30,000 on the 49ers -7 (would pay out $30,000) and $33,000 to win $33,000 on Vikings +7. These were placed at different times, which is why there’s no juice on either bet.
12:55 p.m. ET: Unsurprisingly, the public is flocking to bet the Ravens on the moneyline. One bettor at DraftKings wagered $23,800 on Baltimore to win outright. It would profit $5,236.
Let’s start this off by stating the obvious: The next few days will be massive for sportsbooks across the country. Not only is it the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs, but Monday is the College Football National Championship featuring LSU and Clemson. It won’t be the biggest stretch of the year for the sportsbooks, but it isn’t that far behind Week 1 of the NFL season, the first weekend of March Madness and the Super Bowl.
Usually you can separate the college football market from the NFL because of the amount of games played on any given weekend during the season, but this weekend is different and sportsbooks know that what happens on Saturday and Sunday can put them in a precarious situation on Monday night.
If the chalk crushes over the next three days, it could get ugly for the guys and girls behind the counter.
“It’s like any other divisional playoff week — the four bye teams are usually big favorites,” John Murray, the director of race and sport at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, said. “We have exposure on moneylines, moneyline parlays and teasers. What makes this different is that this will all be rolled into LSU on Monday night.”
The consensus around the sports world is that everybody is betting LSU, which is either -5.5 or -6 depending on the sportsbook, to cover against Clemson on Monday. So naturally, people are tying the Bayou Bengals into their NFL action.
“We want a couple of underdogs to cover, but we really need one of the four dogs to win outright. If all the favorites win, we’re going to need Clemson big,” Murray explained. “Because we have parlays that have already rolled in LSU, plus people will have more money to bet that game if the NFL favorites have a good weekend.”
The SuperBook is one of a few sportsbooks that adjusted LSU to -6 but that hasn’t slowed down the support.
“We brought LSU to -6 hoping to get Clemson money, we haven’t gotten it yet. I think this game can see a -6.5, but I don’t think it will get to -7,” Murray said.
FanDuel, which still has LSU at -5.5, reported that LSU is getting 82% of the bets and 83% of the money at its shops.
Around the Market
Vikings at 49ers (-7) | Over/Under: 44.5
Our market-wide data shows that this game is split right down the middle with 50% of the tickets on either side of the spread. Like Murray noted, usually the public loves backing the team on a bye, but recency bias often trumps all in betting, which is why the Vikings are getting a lot of support on the moneyline.
“The public loves betting what they saw last, especially when it put money in their pockets,” Matt Chaprales of PointsBet said. “They were all over the Vikings moneyline last week and are going back to the well: currently 90% of both the tickets and handle are on the Minny moneyline, at double the volume of action on the side.”
FanDuel is also reporting two-way traffic for this game. According to their data, San Francisco is getting 45% of the bets and 53% of the money.
Titans at Ravens (-9.5) | Over/Under: 47
Something tells me this market would look very different if this game happened a few weeks ago.
The Ravens were the best team in the NFL over the second half and went 10-5-1 Against the Spread this season, but they are not getting as much support as you’d think against the Titans after Tennessee’s upset in New England.
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“We opened Ravens -10 and immediately saw some sharp interest on the Titans, pushing the number down to 9,” Chaprales noted. “But public action has pushed it back to the opener, with pretty good two-way action overall.”
FanDuel said that 55% of the bets and 64% of the money is backing the Ravens.
Of course, a Titans outright would do the books a big favor by killing off a bevy of parlays.
“Everyone has the favorites in parlays, but it seems like every single parlay has Baltimore in it,” Murray said.
DraftKings took a $23,800 bet on the Ravens moneyline (-455). The bet would net $5,236 if the Ravens win.
Texans at Chiefs (-9.5) | Over/Under: 51
The public loves betting on Patrick Mahomes, but this is a pretty chunky spread for a playoff game so the Chiefs don’t seem to be as buzzy as they usually are with public bettors.
Still, almost every sportsbook has adjusted this number towards Kansas City.
“Even though the Chiefs moved from -7 to -9.5, we’re still seeing equal money on either side,” Murray said.
FanDuel notes that the Chiefs are getting 52% of the tickets and 65% of the money, while the action at PointsBet is a little more slanted.
“Pretty steady Chiefs action throughout the week, with an opener of 7.5 getting bet up as high as 10 before we started to see some buyback on the Texans,” Chaprales said. “Kansas City currently owns a 3-to-2 edge on the ticket count while accounting for about 70% of the money.”
Seahawks at Packers (-4.5) | Over/Under: 46.5
Ask any sharp NFL bettor about the Seattle Seahawks and they will likely tell you about black magic, voodoo or good luck. There’s no denying that Seattle has lived a charmed life this season, but the Seahawks have made the most of their luck and now find themselves two wins away from a trip to Miami for their third Super Bowl appearance since 2013.
One thing we know about most casual bettors, they don’t dive much deeper past a team’s W-L record. That’s why it isn’t all that surprising that the Seahawks, despite having to travel to Lambeau Field in January, are on pace to be the most popular side of the weekend in the NFL.
According to our market-wide data, the Seahawks are getting 58% of the tickets and 57% of the money as 4.5-point underdogs at Green Bay. Those splits may not leap out at you, but they do this weekend. In fact, Seattle is the only team getting more than 52% of the tickets according to Sports Insights (as of Friday afternoon).
“We took a sharp bet on the Packers at -4,” Murray explained.
“Closest thing to a tossup of the four games, and action is reflective of that,” Chaprales said. “We’re heavier to Seattle on the side and Green Bay on the moneyline, so as of now Packers inside the number would be the best result.”