NFL Expert Picks: Ravens-Chiefs, Eagles-Cowboys, More Week 14 Bets
USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Rob Gronkowski, Lamar Jackson, Ezekiel Elliott
- The Action Network experts break down their favorite Week 14 NFL bets, including Ravens-Chiefs and Eagles-Cowboys.
- We've also got against-the-spread and over/under picks for Steelers-Raiders, Saints-Bucs, Falcons-Packers and much more.
Our staff has angles on a number of the most highly-anticipated Week 14 matchups — many of which have enormous playoff implications.
Headed into this week, only the Rams have clinched a playoff berth, while the Raiders and 49ers are the only two teams officially eliminated from postseason contention. Here are some of the key playoff related storylines to focus on as we head into a critical NFL weekend:
- Will the Patriots (-8) clinch the AFC East for a 10th straight season to extend their NFL record or will Tom Brady & Co. struggle once again in Miami?
- Speaking of playoffs, the Texans, Chargers, Chiefs and Saints can join the Rams (and potentially the Patriots) as official playoff participants.
- Can the Cowboys (-3.5) sweep the Eagles to put themselves in prime position to win the NFC East or will the division champs tie things up atop the division?
In addition to the games mentioned above), we will cover plenty of other action, including consensus bets on the Falcons-Packers and Saints-Bucs over/unders.
For even more in-depth analysis, check out our betting guides for every single game.
Let’s get into our 17 favorite bets for Week 14, which can hopefully help you find a winner or two you otherwise wouldn’t have spotted. After a bounce back 7-3 last Sunday, our NFL staff picks now sit at 103-100-12 (50.7%) for the season.
Let’s make it three straight strong weekends as we head down the backstretch, starting with an intriguing clash in Kansas City between the Ravens’ No. 1 defense and the Chiefs’ (-7) No. 1 offense.
>> All odds pulled on Dec. 7, so slight line variations are possible. Download The Action Network app to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.
SUNDAY’S EARLY ACTION
Stuckey: Ravens +7 (at Chiefs) & Under 51
1 p.m. ET on CBS
This matchup reminds me a lot of Baltimore’s game with Atlanta last week. An elite passing offense that the Ravens’ secondary can match up with, and a Lamar Jackson-led rushing attack that can expose a bad rushing defense.
Baltimore’s defense has been nothing but spectacular, joining the Bears as the only teams to rank in the top five in both rushing and passing defense DVOA.
How good has the Ravens defense been? Well, here are just a handful of the categories it leads the league in heading into Week 14:
- Points per game (17.8)
- Completion percentage (57.9%)
- Yards per play (4.9)
- Yards per game (281.7)
- Passing yards per attempt (5.6)
That’s huge against the Chiefs’ record-setting offense, which leads the league with 7.2 yards per play and 8.9 yards per pass attempt.
I also love the under, which I locked in at 53 (and like down to 50), as the Ravens will play keep-away, which will do three things:
- Keep Patrick Mahomes off the field
- Take advantage of the horrid run defense of the Chiefs’ defensive front
- Neutralize the Chiefs primary strengths on a bad defense
Lastly, both of these teams have elite special team units — so no advantage there — although you still would trust Justin Tucker to make a big kick over any other kicker in the league (unless it’s an extra point to tie the game vs. the Saints).
Travis Reed: Ravens +7 (at Chiefs)
1 p.m. ET on CBS
Completely agree, Stuckey. After starting the season 7-0 against the spread, the Chiefs have gone just 1-3-1 since. The Chiefs are still a great team, but they have been overvalued by the betting market recently.
I think that continues this week, as seven points is too many against a good Ravens defense. With Jackson expected to start against a porous run defense, Baltimore should be able to run a lot of clock and limit the number of scoring opportunities for Mahomes & Co.
The Chiefs win, but the Ravens keep it close.
Sean Koerner: Redskins +3.5 (vs. Giants)
1 p.m. ET on FOX
The Redskins’ season took a turn for the worst when Alex Smith suffered a broken leg, ending his season. The market adjusted their team rating down roughly 3.5 points as they went from Smith to Colt McCoy under center, which seems about right.
Now that McCoy has suffered a broken leg — what is it with Washington quarterbacks breaking their legs?! — they will need to turn to their third-stringer.
The market has decided to lower the Redskins’ power rating another 3-3.5 points with Mark Sanchez starting, but that’s way too much of an overreaction.
I’ll gladly take the home team here, since they still have a shot at the playoffs.
In what should be a low-scoring game, it’s critical to make sure you get the half-point hook.
PJ Walsh: Patriots-Dolphins Under 48
1 p.m. ET on CBS
This is mostly a situational play based on late-season trends and the early forecast, aided by sharp money indicators.
According to Bet Labs, divisional games with totals of at least 45 played after Week 10 have gone under 61.9% of the time since 2005.
In addition, the forecast is calling for steady 14 mph winds throughout the game, with even stronger gusts. Since 2005, unders are 454-358-10 (55.9%) in games played with double-digit winds.
At the time of writing, nearly half of the tickets are on the over, but 88% of the dollars wagered have come in on the under, indicating that the larger wagers are also banking on a lower-scoring game.