Freedman’s Favorite NFL Prop Bet (Jan. 20): How Many Rushing Yards Will Mark Ingram Get?
Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New Orleans Saints running back Mark Ingram (22).
- In 2019, Matthew Freedman is writing a new series featuring one of his favorite prop bets for each day.
- On Sunday, he looks at the Saints-Rams game (3:05 p.m. ET, Fox) and the rushing yardage prop for New Orleans running back Mark Ingram.
Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine.
For more information on my research process and the resources I use, see the master list of my 2019 prop bets.
2019 Year-to-Date Record
15-9-2, +14.01 Units
- Golf: 2-1-0, +1.30 Units
- NFL: 3-4-0, +6.35 Units
- NBA: 5-2-0, +2.56 Units
- NHL: 5-1-2, +4.80 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units
Freedman’s Favorite NFL Prop Bet for Sunday, Jan. 20: Mark Ingram Under 49.5, Over 41.5
- Under 49.5: -115
- Over 41.5: -115
Conference Championship weekend kicks off with the Saints-Rams game (3:05 p.m. ET, Fox), and New Orleans running back Mark Ingram has caught my eye with his rushing yardage props.
Due to market inefficiencies, there’s a great opportunity to middle his rushing yardage total. Our friends at Bet the Prop originally pointed this out.
Just spotted a great middling opportunity on the Mark Ingram prop bet:
Ingram Over 41.5 RUSH Yds (-115 @ 5 Dimes)
Ingram Under 49.5 RUSH Yds (-115 @ Bovada)
42-49 yards for Ingram is a reasonable outcome and would print you a mint at no risk! pic.twitter.com/orrsH6Nkz9
— Bet the Prop (@bettheprop) January 20, 2019
The opportunity to middle 42-49 yards is too good to pass up.
Ironically, Ingram has yet to have a yardage total in the 40s this season, but in the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we’re projecting him for 43.9 yards rushing.
Against the run-stuffing defensive tackle duo of Aaron Darnold and Ndamukong Suh, Ingram isn’t likely to be highly efficient, but he has a good chance of getting somewhere between nine and 12 carries, which puts him in the wheelhouse of 42-49 yards.
If I had to bet just one of these lines, I’d easily take under 49.5, but I really like the middle and have invested in it fully.
These two lines are available at 5Dimes (under 49.5, -115) and Bovada (over 41.5, -115). As long as there’s a middle opportunity of at least five yards, I like this two-pronged bet.
The Pick: Under 49.5 (-115), Over 41.5 (-115)