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NFL Playoff Bets: Indianapolis Colts Among 4 Teams Offering Value

Dec 19, 2018 4:55 PM EST
Credit:

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck

  • The oddsmakers have posted odds for seven NFL teams to make or miss the playoffs.
  • By comparing our projections to betting odds, we found four teams offering value.

There’s only two weeks left in the regular season and the number of playoff spots available are dwindling.

The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers have punched their tickets to the postseason in the AFC while the New Orleans Saints, Los Angeles Rams and Chicago Bears have clinched playoff berths in the NFC.

That leaves seven spots up for grabs.

One book is offering prop bets for seven teams to make or miss the playoffs. Based on the difference in implied probability and projected chance using The Action Network’s NFL simulations, the analysis below looks at the two best bets to make and miss the playoffs.

Make the Playoffs

Indianapolis Colts

  • Current odds: +160, Implied Probability: 38.5%
  • Colts make the playoffs 45.7% of the time

The Colts don’t control their own destiny, which is why Indy is plus-money to make the playoffs. In addition to winning out, Andrew Luck & Co. need a loss by either the Pittsburgh Steelers or Baltimore Ravens.

There is a good chance one or both of the Steelers (+5.5 at Saints) and Ravens (+4.5 at Chargers) lose in Week 16. Assuming the Colts take care of business and either Pittsburgh or Baltimore stumbles, Indy will face Tennessee in a win-and-you’re-in Week 17 matchup.

The Action Network NFL Power Rankings would make the Colts 1.1-point favorites over the Titans in Tennessee.