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Updated MVP Odds: Brees’ Stock On the Rise Following Week 5

Oct 10, 2018 4:46 PM EDT
  • Patrick Mahomes remains the favorite at +333, but Drew Brees' odds jumped from +600 to +350 following his big win and record-breaking game against the Redskins.
  • Jared Goff and Todd Gurley's odds also saw big improvements, as the Rams' tour of destruction continues.
  • Aaron Rodgers did all he could in Detroit, but thanks to four missed field goals and an extra point from Mason Crosby, the Packers' record has hurt his odds quite a bit.

We are five weeks through the season and Patrick Mahomes still has the best odds for MVP. Who woulda thunk it? He’s not without competition, though, as two other quarterbacks — one old, one young — are nipping on his heels.

None of them began the season with shorter than 16-1 odds, so there are a lot of bettors out there holding onto some big potential cashes.

Here are the updated odds from Bovada:

Risers

Drew Brees: +600 to +350 (+7.9% Implied Probability)

Have a week, Drew. Have a darn week. Maybe Peyton will make a video about your MVP implied probability rising 7.9% over the past week, who knows?

Brees saw a pretty big jump after the first two weeks, but his odds had plateaued since then. Not anymore.  Brees is now the only NFL starting QB without a single interception, and his 122.3 passer rating is a league best.

Mahomes’ big burst onto the scene has certainly been impressive, but one could argue Brees is having a better season — which is still just 5/17ths complete, by the way.

Jared Goff: +500 to +400 (+3.3% IP)

I was a bit surprised to see Goff’s odds improve as he threw two interceptions and just one touchdown pass last week in a game that the Rams barely won in Seattle.

The season’s body of work is still there, but moving from +500 to +400 is pretty big for what was far from a great game for Goff.

Todd Gurley: +1400 to +900 (3.3% IP)

Gurley has lived up to the lofty expectations he set with his monster 2017 season and perhaps has even exceeded them so far. He found the end zone three times in Seattle and is now essentially in the second tier of this list along with Tom Brady.

His nine total touchdowns this season are three more than anyone else has scored, while his 129 all-purpose yards per game are 1.3 behind Christian McCaffrey for the league lead.

Gurley came in second place in last year’s MVP vote behind Brady and is within striking distance if these quarterbacks start to regress.

Fallers

Aaron Rodgers: +800 to +2000 (-6.3% IP)

Rodgers’ odds — and the Packers’ Super Bowl odds — are the biggest fallers of the week. It’s not really even his fault, it’s Mason Crosby’s. Rodgers had 442 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions, so he’s not really deserving of such a massive odds drop.

The big issue now is that the Packers are in a tough spot, as they’re +130 just to make the playoffs. We all know what Rodgers is capable of, so I would not write him off. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets some takers at this price.

Joe Flacco: +2000 to +6000 (-3.2% IP)

Flacco is definitely deserving of a big drop after managing only a 60 passer rating in an overtime loss to the Browns. Mr. Elite is top 10 in passing yards, but not in any other major passing stat.

In fact, he ranks quite poorly in some others, including 30th out of 35 qualified QBs in completion percentage. If the Ravens had won and were still tied for first in the division, you could make an argument for him.

But he’s not winning anything with his stats unless the Ravens are dominant down the stretch.

Alvin Kamara: +1600 to +3000 (-2.7% IP)

Those poor, poor Kamara fantasy owners. Must be rough getting like 100 points per game and then have Mark Ingram come back and steal the show just like that.

With Kamara essentially doing nothing this past week, his odds have taken a hit. Not only did he do nothing, but the Saints have made it clear that they’re going to be relying on him less as the season presses on.

Not someone I would bet on considering the current price and situation.

Credit:

Oct 8, 2018; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) reacts after setting the NFL record for passing yardage during the second quarter against the Washington Redskins at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports.

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