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Updated NFL MVP Odds: Brees Leapfrogs Mahomes Following Week 11

Nov 21, 2018 11:00 AM EST
  • Drew Brees (-210) has made a massive jump up the NFL MVP odds leaderboard, leapfrogging Patrick Mahomes (+200) in the process.
  • The Chiefs-Rams game produced two of the biggest losers of the week, as Mahomes and Todd Gurley (+1800) both saw their odds drop massively.
  • Andrew Luck (+2000) has quietly made his way into the second tier of players.

Week 11 was big for Super Bowl 53 odds and perhaps even bigger for the MVP race. The MVP conversation has essentially become a two horse race, and with six weeks remaining, it’ll be tough for other candidates to make their way into the running.

 

Risers

Drew Brees: +160 to -210 (+29.2% Implied Probability)

Talk about a good week for Brees shareholders. For the second consecutive week, the Saints pounded their opponent and Brees could do no wrong.

His QB rating of 126.9 is:

  • Freaking absurd
  • A full nine points higher than Patrick Mahomes’

A 25/1 TD/INT ratio? Give me a break. If he slings a few more TDs with no picks on Turkey Day, he could be up to -300 by next week.

Andrew Luck: +5000 to +2000 (+2.8% IP)

The Colts are just 5-5, but Luck has been dominating as of late. He’s thrown for at least three scores in seven straight games and has 29 on the year.

With Brees and Mahomes and their respective teams off to much better and more well-documented starts, it’ll be hard for Luck to get back into the race unless the Colts make the playoffs.

Jared Goff: +3000 to +1600  (+2.7% IP)

Basically everyone had a huge game on Monday night and Jared Goff was no exception. He threw for four touchdowns and ran one in on his own.

He has the third-highest QB rating and, of course, has led his team to a 10-1 record thus far.

Fallers

Patrick Mahomes: -110 to +200 (-19.1% IP)

Mahomes’ implied probability probably dropped by 10% in the final minutes of Monday’s game.

Though he put up crazy numbers, including 478 passing yards and six more touchdowns to bring his season total to 36, he turned the ball over five times, including two ugly picks toward the end of the game.

He’s now tied for fourth in the league with 10 interceptions on the season and, in my opinion, will need one of a few different scenarios to hit to win:

  • He breaks the passing TD record of 55
  • Brees comes back to earth or the Saints lose a couple more games
  • He is nearly mistake-free the rest of the way

All of these are possible, but Mahomes has moved from the driver’s seat to back-middle in the span of just a couple of weeks.

Todd Gurley: +600 to +1800 (-9.0% IP)

Remember when I said pretty much everyone had a big game on Monday night? That would everyone except Todd Gurley, who was somehow invisible despite his team scoring 54 points.

If you saw the score, you’d assume Gurley posted 200+ yards from scrimmage with three touchdowns. On the contrary, he had 94 yards from scrimmage (didn’t even seem like that many) and zero touchdowns.

What a hack.

Aaron Rodgers: +1600 to +7500 (-4.6% IP)

lot of other players saw large drops in implied probability, but Rodgers secured the third spot. After a loss to Seattle, the Packers have a tough road to make the playoffs.

A loss this weekend to Minnesota would make it very unlikely.

Rodgers is having a solid, but not great year, and ranks between 5-10 in most major statistical categories. He’d need an excellent stretch run to get back into the conversation.

Credit:

Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

Follow Mark Gallant on Twitter
@marky_money

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