Updated NFL MVP Odds: Mahomes Now the Odds-On Favorite

Nov 08, 2018 8:50 PM EST
  • Patrick Mahomes put together another strong performance in Week 9, boosting his MVP odds from +100 to -140.
  • With the Saints' defeat of the previously-undefeated Rams, Drew Brees' (+300) stock rose the most this week.
  • Todd Gurley (+450) remains among the three favorites, but his odds took the biggest hit of the week.

As we drive deeper into the 2018-19 NFL season, the top MVP candidates aren’t fading. In fact, a few players continue to bolster their resumes.

One young quarterback, one old quarterback and one running back all have great cases to take home the hardware and are eating up the large majority of the implied probability available in the betting market.

You know which guys I’m talking about.

Risers

Drew Brees: +800 to +300 (+13.9% Implied Probability)

After toppling the undefeated Rams, Drew Brees’ MVP stock is on the rise big time. He had a terrific game, finishing just shy of 350 passing yards with four TD passes and no interceptions.

He’s been essentially flawless on the year with just one interception.

Brees has thrown for 11 fewer touchdown passes than Patrick Mahomes, but has six fewer picks to go with a much higher completion percentage (76.3%).

Mahomes may be the odds-on favorite, but Brees is right there if he falters.

Patrick Mahomes: +100 to -140 (+8.3 IP)

Mahomes continues to wheel and deal, slinging TDs left and right and racking up passing yards. He leads the league in both categories by a fair margin.

However, as I mentioned before, he hasn’t been mistake-free. In fact, he’s thrown seven interceptions in his past five games.

Given his personal success and the team’s hot start, he can afford some mistakes here and there, but it won’t look good at year’s end if finishes with vastly more interceptions than Brees.

Gotta minimize those picks.

Alvin Kamara: N/A to +3300 (+2.9% IP)

Following Mark Ingram’s return, Kamara’s chances at an MVP award went out the window. He did hardly anything in the first game with Ingram back, but has scored six times in the three games since.

He’s still a longshot, but has done enough to come back from the dead at Bovada.

Fallers

Todd Gurley: +200 to +450 (-15.1% IP)

The Rams are no longer undefeated and Gurley was very mediocre, as far as Gurley goes. Getting just 19 touches, Gurley managed only 79 total yards and one measly touchdown.

His stats are still ridiculous on the year, but all things Rams took a hit once their undefeated season ended.

Ben Roethlisberger: +5000 to N/A (-2.0%)

Each Wednesday afternoon, Bovada reposts the MVP odds around noon ET and about an hour later, adds a few more players to the bottom of the list. For example, Matt Ryan was added later than the rest of the players this week.

I kept refreshing and even waited longer than I normally do to post this article because I was expecting them to add Big Ben to the list.

They have not, but the article must live on.

Roethlisberger had neither a great nor terrible game this past week, but the Steelers took a huge step toward winning the AFC North.

I would expect Roethlisberger to have odds similar to last week if not a bit higher, but I just write these things. I don’t make the odds.

Aaron Donald: +5000 to N/A (-2.0%)

If there was any shot of a defensive player winning this season, it’s now gone. Like Gurley, Donald’s chances were really hurt just due to the Rams’ loss.

A defensive player has only won this award once so he would need anything and everything he could add to his resume.

Donald had just one tackle in the Rams’ loss to the Saints in which LA’s defense allowed 45 points. In the two weeks prior, Donald had 10 combined tackles, six sacks and a forced fumble.

Credit:

Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

Follow Mark Gallant on Twitter
@marky_money

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