NFL Odds, Picks & Predictions: How Wind Is Moving Bears vs. Packers Odds
Dylan Buell/Getty Images. Pictured: General view of Lambeau Field, home to the Green Bay Packers.
NFL Odds: Bears vs. Packers
|PRO Projections||Packers -6.7 | O/U: 44.2|
|Time/Channel||8:20 p.m. ET, NBC|
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: The Chicago Bears sport one of the NFL’s best defenses, but struggle immensely putting up points on the offensive side of the ball.
Chicago’s defense currently ranks fourth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, while the offense is just 29th in the league.
The Bears will start Mitchell Trubisky over Nick Foles at quarterback Sunday, with the hope of getting something, anything, going offensively.
Will this actually help? Who knows?
However, according to our NFL tools and data, there are reasons to like one side on the Bears-Packers over/under total.
NFL Picks: Bears vs. Packers
With Aaron Rodgers on one sideline, it’s not at all surprising to see 57% of bettors hitting the over this game.
Despite garnering just 43% of the action, the under has attracted 64% of the loot — a clear signal bigger bettors are expecting a lower-scoring game.
Oddsmakers are aware of this bets-vs.-money discrepancy as well, kicking the total down from 45.5 to 44 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
So, why is the majority of money flowing on the under?
Look no further than the Lambeau Field weather.
Bears vs. Packers Weather Forecast
As is typical this time of year, the temperature drops and the winds start howling in Green Bay.
According to the National Weather Service, 13-to-15 mph winds are expected, with gusts up to 23 mph.
Sports Insights’ weather data shows 15-16 mph winds starting at kick off, with temperatures dropping from 34 to 32 degrees throughout the game.
Our Bet Labs software tells us that scoring is hampered when winds reach double digits.
Since 2003, unders have hit 56% of the time in NFL games played in breezes of at least 10 mph.
And when a windy game is played between two divisional opponents (like the Bears and Packers), the under win percentage improves to 58% over that span.