NFL Odds, Predictions, Picks For Patriots vs. Falcons: An Expert’s Guide To Betting Thursday Night Football
Getty Images. Pictured: Patriots QB Mac Jones, Falcons TE Kyle Pitts
- Patriots-Falcons odds have been on the move since our expert wrote the following Thursday Night Football preview, but his pick is still within bet-able range.
- While the spread swung from Patriots -7 to -6.5 then back to -7, it's actually the over/under that our expert sees value in betting.
- Find out why, based on even the latest Patriots-Falcons odds, he still sees an edge on this total.
|Time||8:20 p.m. ET|
The Patriots opened as 6.5-point road favorites, but with 75% of the money bet backing New England as of writing (check real-time public betting data here), the spread has risen to the key number of 7.
It makes sense why the public is on the Patriots: They're coming off a 45-7 blowout win over the Browns to extend their win streak to four while the Falcons are coming off a 43-3 blowout loss to the Cowboys. But this line appears to be inflated by 1-2 points, so I expect sharp bettors to be on Atlanta.
That said, we should watch how the market responds if/when sportsbooks move the line to Patriots -7.5 (find real-time NFL odds here). If that happens and the line is quickly bet back down to 7, that would be a clear sign the sharps like the Falcons at that number. But if the line moves and it stays at 7.5, that would be a sign the sharps could be split on this matchup.
But I don't see value on the spread either way, so I'm attacking the over/under instead.
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Patriots vs. Falcons Injury Report
- RB Brandon Bolden (hip): Questionable
- WR N'Keal Harry (knee): Questionable
- TE Jonnu Smith (shoulder): Questionable
- OL Trent Brown (calf): Questionable
- OL Shaq Mason (abdomen): Questionable
- DL Deatrich Wise (illness): Questionable
- LB Dont'a Hightower (ankle): Questionable
- LB Kyle Van Noy (groin): Questionable
- LB Ja'Whaun Bentley (hip): Questionable
- CB Jalen Mills (forearm): Questionable
- DB Kyle Dugger (ankle): Questionable
- K Nick Folk (knee): Questionable
- P Jake Bailey (knee): Questionable
- TE Hayden Hurst (ankle): Out
- LB Daren Bates (groin): Out
- DB Kendall Sheffield (hamstring): Out
- RB Cordarrelle Patterson (ankle): Questionable
- S Jaylinn Hawkins (ankle): Questionable
Patriots vs. Falcons Matchup
|Patriots Offense||DVOA Rank||Falcons Defense|
|Patriots Defense||DVOA Rank||Falcons Offense|
|Football Outsiders' DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team's success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Falcons Have Key Injuries…
The key injury to watch is Patterson, who is a game-time decision with his ankle injury. If he's unable to suit up, it would be a massive blow to the Falcons, who are already without stud wide receiver Calvin Ridley.
Backup tight end Hayden Hurst has also already been ruled out with an ankle injury. While that might not seem like a big deal, the Falcons have attempted the second-most passes (153) with a 2-TE formation, so losing Hurst could force them to alter their offensive game plan significantly.
…That Patriots Could Exploit
Bill Belichick is arguably the greatest coach of all time, and he excels at creating defensive game plans centered around stopping his opponent's best player. That means with so many weapons out for the Falcons, it should make it easier for Belichick to make Kyle Pitts a non-factor and shut down this offense.
In what's likely to be a positive game script as a result, the Patriots will be more than happy to lean on their defense and operate a run-heavy offense on the short week. And Damien Harris' return and Rhamondre Stevenson's emergence should make it easier for them to lean on both running backs heavily here.
NFL Pick: Patriots vs. Falcons
With the Falcons offense missing key playmakers and the Patriots likely to rely on the run game, I'm projecting this total closer to 46 points. And with some books offering this line as high as 47.5 points as of writing, I like the under.
That said, 47 is a key number in NFL betting since it's common for games to finish with that many total points scored, so be sure to lock this under in at 47.5 or better.
I would only be willing to bet the under at 47 if Patterson is ultimately ruled out.
Pick: Under 47.5 | Bet to: 47.5 if Patterson is in; 47 if he's out
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