NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions: Steelers Spread, Cardinals-Lions Over/Under Are Expert’s Biggest Betting Edges
Joe Sargent/Getty Images. Pictured: Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger
NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions
|Steelers -1.5 (vs. Titans)|
|Cardinals-Lions Under 47.5|
Action’s Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, reveals the biggest edges based on his NFL Power Ratings. He has a 494-389-9 (55%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action App, where you can follow all of his picks.
This is a must-win game for the 6-6 Steelers in what will be Ben Roethlisberger’s last season. I expect a maximum-effort game from the Steelers here. They are also surprisingly healthy given the amount of injuries/COVID cases across the league this week. T.J. Watt was forced to exit Week 14 due to a groin injury, but after getting in a full practice on Friday, he should be close to 100% for Sunday. The Steelers also might be getting back CB Joe Haden.
Meanwhile, the 9-4 Titans are sitting pretty atop the AFC South right now. They qualify as an “overrated” team according to my expected wins model, which projects them closer to a 7-6 expected record. The Titans have benefited from one-score luck this season, going 4-1 in close games.
Rodger Saffold has been ruled out for Week 15 and his backup, Aaron Brewer, suffered a late-week toe injury and he is now listed as questionable. In a corresponding move, the Titans elevated Daniel Munyer from the practice squad. If Brewer is unable to play or suffers an in-game setback, the Titans will be forced to play a third-stringer or significantly shuffle their offensive line.
The sharks have bet the Steelers from +2 earlier in the week to 1.5-point favorites at time of writing (check real-time NFL odds here). The most likely outcome of this game is the Steelers winning by three points, so I still like them at -1.5 and would bet it up to -2.5.
It’s been a few weeks since I’ve attacked the Lions’ under, but I’m back at it in Week 15. The Lions have been a run-heavy team that struggled to put up points all season, which is a dream combo for under bettors. They are now without their top two skill players in D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson, which is going to make it even harder for them to move the ball against the Cardinals’ fourth-ranked defense in DVOA.
The Cardinals offense was dealt a massive blow this week with DeAndre Hopkins suffering a season-ending knee injury. Zach Ertz also popped up on the injury report on Friday with a hamstring injury. Rodney Hudson was placed on the COVID list and won’t be available Sunday. The offense should still be able to put up enough points to beat the Lions, but this should be a lower-scoring game than the market is expecting. I have this projected closer to 45.5 and would bet it down to 46.5.