Vikings vs. Bears Odds, Picks, Predictions: An NFL Same-Game Parlay To Bet For Monday Night Football
Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Vikings QB Kirk Cousins, RB Dalvin Cook
|Time||8:15 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Monday and via DraftKings|
Like most kids, I considered signs that said “wet paint” to be a challenge more than a warning. Where I believe I am different than most is that once I touched the painted surface with one hand, I had to confirm whether the paint was indeed wet by touching it with my other hand.
This is going to be another one of those cases.
When building last week’s same-game parlay, we projected that Chicago would look bad early but have some pop in the second half.
Once again, I will stand by that theory.
Three huge plays smashed this script last week. Two were passes of less than 10 air yards that the Packers just chose not to defense. The third was a punt returned for a 97-yard touchdown, and as a friend of mine who returned punts in college said, “[the returner] broke every rule in the book” in terms of fielding punts.
When the second half came, order was restored as the Packers scored 20 straight points then milked the clock with A.J. Dillon.
Believing that the Bears got lucky is not the only reason I’m sticking with a similar script. The other is that the Vikings always seem to find themselves in close games — 12 of their 13 games have ended within one score. This is likely due to Mike Zimmer’s conservative coaching style and trust in his defense. Regardless, we can be confident that even if the Vikings lead by multiple scores early, there is a good chance they’ll let the Bears come back.
In recent weeks, we’ve seen the potential of Minnesota’s offense. The Vikings averaged 403 yards of offense and 31 points over their past four games. But nothing captures their struggles to close out games more than their recent matchup against the Steelers — Minnesota’s 29-7 lead to start the fourth quarter came one drop away from a potential trip to overtime.
In this matchup, the Vikings should have a better roster and extra rest. On offense, Justin Jefferson has been un-guard-able in recent weeks while Dalvin Cook just trampled the Steelers. On defense, Zimmer should have a crafty game plan that will give the young Justin Fields trouble. However, once the Vikings have their comfy lead, they will once again be back to their conservative game plan.
There you have it, our script for Monday Night Football. Now, let’s put together our parlay.
The Parlay (+1000)
- Prop 1: Bears +8.5 (-145)
- Prop 2: Vikings -4.5 1H (+110)
- Prop 3: Under 44.5 (-110)
NFL Same-Game Parlay: Vikings vs. Bears
Prop 1: Bears +8.5 (-145)
This pick is giving more credence to the Vikings’ tendency to end within one score than anything else. With Cook and Alexander Mattison in the backfield, the Vikings can ground and pound while not beating their backs up too much. Through the air, their play calling becomes conservative, too. With a lead, Cousins goes from 8.0 yards per pass attempt way down to 6.5 yards.
It will be up to Fields to lead his team on a couple scoring drives to keep up. Fortunately, when the Vikes have a lead, their pass defense goes from tough to Swiss cheese. When they are tied or leading, the Vikings allow a quarterback rating of under 80.0. When they are leading, though, that skyrockets to 104.7.
Prop 2: Vikings -4.5 1H (+110)
Last week, we saw Devante Adams light up the Bears for 121 yards and two touchdowns. While Adams is the best receiver in the league, Jefferson has earned the right to be in conversation for the second spot.
If the Bears had no answer for Adams, the same will likely be the case Jefferson.
Jefferson typically does his work early in games, too. Per Pro-Football-Reference, he has the most targets in the first quarter and his highest yards per target. This is likely because Minnesota is still in a neutral game script and is willing to be aggressive. I expect more of the same aggressive style early.
Prop 3: Under 44.5 (-110)
This last prop comes from both teams’ propensity to run the ball.
Minnesota and Chicago both rank in the top half of the league in run/pass split. Also, as I have beat to death throughout this story, Minnesota loves to end with close games. I don’t expect the Bears offense to find its rhythm until the second half. By then, the Vikings will have a lead and be milking the clock anyway.
This will be a fast game thanks to these offenses’ conservative styles, which should keep the score low.
There you have it! Our last same-game parlay before Christmas. Hopefully, we can hit this one big and get some reimbursement for all our holiday expenses!