NFL Odds & Picks for Week 11: Sharps Betting Falcons vs. Saints & Cowboys vs. Vikings
Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. Pictured: Taysom Hill #7 of the New Orleans Saints
Sharps have taken a liking to Sunday’s NFL Week 11 slate as our PRO Report shows professional bettors taking positions on 17 different bets when you combine both spreads and over/unders.
While each of these indicators is noteworthy for bettors, we’re going to focus specifically on the Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints and Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings matchups as ones offering value heading into Sunday’s games.
Let’s examine why wiseguys are so bullish on each of these two Week 11 games.
NFL Pick: Falcons vs. Saints
It’s not all that surprising to see this spread coming down in reaction to Drew Brees’ injury status (Brees won’t play Sunday), but sharps have continued betting this game all week, even after it was clear that some combination of Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill would be under center.
For example, Sports Insights’ Bet Signals are reporting that pros steamed the Falcons on Thursday afternoon, a key piece of data that tells us why the line dropped to Atlanta +4 as recently as Friday morning before the news that Hill will get the start broke, which kicked the number down another half-point to +3.5.
Our NFL Public betting data confirms that sportsbooks are heavy with Atlanta money as 67% of the loot (click here for updated betting percentages) has come in on the Falcons.
With building liability from pro bettors and lopsided money, it’s not at all surprising to see this line pushing to 3.
The Action Network’s analysts are on the road underdog as well with two of our top NFL betting experts playing Atlanta.
PRO Report Pick: Falcons +3.5
NFL Pick: Cowboys vs. Vikings
Earlier this week, I highlighted why Cowboys +8.5 was a smart bet against the Vikings and sharps are in complete agreement.
Smart money has pushed this number down to Dallas +7, and historical betting data is likely contributing to the move.
After the first five weeks of an NFL season are in the books, teams with poor against-the-spread (ATS) records are undervalued when playing teams with winning ATS records.
This theory is the backbone of our Team ATS Records PRO Betting System that has produced a 179-114-11 (61%) ATS win rate since 2005.
Dallas comes into Sunday’s game with a 1-8 ATS record while Minnesota is 6-3 against the number, making the Cowboys a match for this system.
Two of our experts are expecting a close game and are backing the Cowboys as well.
PRO Report Pick: Cowboys +7