Koerner’s NFL Pick ‘Em Pool Ratings: Best Week 1 Straight Up & ATS Picks

Koerner’s NFL Pick ‘Em Pool Ratings: Best Week 1 Straight Up & ATS Picks article feature image

Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cam Newton

  • Sean Koerner unveails his NFL Pick 'Em Confidence Ratings for Week 1, featuring 1-to-32 ratings for both against-the-spread and straight-up picks.

Pick 'em pool season is back! You can even play in our app now.

But if you're really serious about winning your pool, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick 'em confidence ratings each week throughout the season.

Let's quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 1 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than we'll highlight below.

NFL Pick 'Em Confidence Ratings Methodology

These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.

To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the "true" odds are for every matchup.

In theory, sportsbooks' lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).

Now let's start with my SU ratings for season-openers then wrap it up with ATS.

Go To:Custom ATS Ratings

Straight Up Confidence Ratings

1. Eagles

Matchup: vs. Redskins
Confidence Rating: 78.3%

2. Seahawks

Matchup: vs. Bengals
Confidence Rating: 77%

3. Cowboys

Matchup: vs. Giants
Confidence Rating: 74.3%

4. Chargers

Matchup: vs. Colts
Confidence Rating: 69.9%

4. Patriots

Matchup: vs. Steelers
Confidence Rating: 69.9%

6. Saints

Matchup: vs. Texans
Confidence Rating: 68.4%

7. Ravens

Matchup: at Dolphins
Confidence Rating: 65.2%

8. Browns

Matchup: vs. Titans
Confidence Rating: 63.6%

9. Vikings

Matchup: vs. Falcons
Confidence Rating: 62%

9. Jets

Matchup: vs. Bills
Confidence Rating: 62%

11. Bears

Matchup: vs. Packers
Confidence Rating: 60.3%

12. Chiefs

Matchup: at Jaguars
Confidence Rating: 58.6%

13. 49ers

Matchup: at Buccaneers
Confidence Rating: 51.7%

13. Rams

Matchup: at Panthers
Confidence Rating: 51.7%

13. Lions

Matchup: at Cardinals
Confidence Rating: 51.7%

13. Raiders

Matchup: vs. Broncos
Confidence Rating: 51.7%

17. Broncos

Matchup: at Raiders
Confidence Rating: 48.3%

17. Buccaneers

Matchup: vs. 49ers
Confidence Rating: 48.3%

17. Panthers

Matchup: vs. Rams
Confidence Rating: 48.3%

17. Cardinals

Matchup: vs. Lions
Confidence Rating: 48.3%

21. Jaguars

Matchup: vs. Chiefs
Confidence Rating: 41.4%

22. Packers

Matchup: at Bears
Confidence Rating: 39.7%

23. Falcons

Matchup: at Vikings
Confidence Rating: 38%

23. Bills

Matchup: at Jets
Confidence Rating: 38%

25. Titans

Matchup: at Browns
Confidence Rating: 36.4%

26. Dolphins

Matchup: vs. Ravens
Confidence Rating: 34.8%

27. Texans

Matchup: at Saints
Confidence Rating: 31.6%

28. Colts

Matchup: at Chargers
Confidence Rating: 30.1%

28. Steelers

Matchup: at Patriots
Confidence Rating: 30.1%

30. Giants

Matchup: at Cowboys
Confidence Rating: 25.7%

31. Bengals

Matchup: at Seahawks
Confidence Rating: 23%

32. Redskins

Matchup: at Eagles
Confidence Rating: 21.7%

Against the Spread Confidence Ratings

I've outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Tuesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.

1. Panthers

Spread: +3 vs. Rams

T-2. Dolphins

Spread: +7 vs. Ravens

T-2. Cardinals

Spread: +2.5 vs. Lions

T-4. Titans

Spread: +5.5 at Browns

T-4. Texans

Spread: +7 at Saints

T-4. 49ers

Spread: +1 at Buccaneers

T-4. Raiders

Spread: +1 vs. Broncos

T-8. Jaguars

Spread: +3.5 vs. Chiefs

T-8. Bengals

Spread: +9.5 at Seahawks

T-10. Falcons

Spread: +4 at Vikings

T-10. Redskins

Spread: +9.5 at Eagles

T-10. Colts

Spread: +6.5 at Chargers

T-10. Jets

Spread: -3 vs. Bills

T-10. Cowboys

Spread: -7 vs. Giants

T-10. Patriots

Spread: -5.5 vs. Steelers

T-16. Bears

Spread: -3 vs. Packers

T-16. Packers

Spread: +3 at Bears

T-18. Bills

Spread: +3 at Jets

T-18. Giants

Spread: +7 at Cowboys

T-18. Steelers

Spread: +5.5 at Patriots

T-18. Vikings

Spread: -4 vs. Falcons

T-18. Eagles

Spread: -9.5 vs. Redskins

T-18. Chargers

Spread: -6.5 vs. Colts

T-24. Seahawks

Spread: -9.5 vs. Bengals

T-24. Chiefs

Spread: -3.5 at Jaguars

T-26. Broncos

Spread: -1 at Raiders

T-26. Buccaneers

Spread: -1 vs. 49ers

T-26. Saints

Spread: -7 vs. Texans

T-26. Browns

Spread: -5.5 vs. Titans

T-30. Ravens

Spread: -7 at Dolphins

T-30. Lions

Spread: -2.5 at Cardinals

32. Rams

Spread: -3 at Panthers

Custom Confidence Ratings

Your league might be using different odds, in which case, you'll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.

Note that you'll want to make sure to add the "-" in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column M.

Here's an example of what the sheet looks like:

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