NFL Expert Picks: Chiefs-Patriots, Rams-Broncos, More Week 6 Bets


USA Today Sports. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes, Sean McVay

Oct 12, 2018, 07:40 PM EDT
  • The Action Network experts break down their favorite NFL bets for Week 6, including the Kansas City Chiefs-New England Patriots matchup on Sunday Night Football.
  • Find out if we think the undefeated Rams are vulnerable in the altitude and potential snow against the reeling Broncos in Denver.
  • Plus against-the-spread and over/under picks for Jaguars-Cowboys, Chargers-Browns, Bears-Dolphins and more.

I think Eli Manning just checked down again.

With another ugly Thursday night game in the books — can the NFL please cancel those slop-fests? — we can now focus on some more intriguing storylines on the Week 6 slate, including:

  • Can the Kansas City Chiefs continue their perfect record against the spread in Foxborough on Sunday night against the New England Patriots? (If they can, Patrick Mahomes will have pulled off something only Peyton Manning has at Gillette Stadium in the Tom Brady era.)
  • Speaking of perfect, can anybody beat the Los Angeles Rams? Their next test will come at high altitude in Denver with a few potential injuries — and possibly snow on the ground. Yes, snow in October!

Our crew has a few different takes on how each of those games will play out, which I always think paints the best picture of a game for prospective bettors. You will also find many other valuable insights for a very intriguing Sunday slate.

For even more in-depth analysis, make sure to check out our betting guides for every single game this upcoming weekend.

Hopefully we’ll have another winning weekend as a group, though ideally closer to the 12-1-3 record we had in Week 4 than our 9-8-1 in Week 5. Stuckey

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Chad Millman: Chargers -1 (at Browns)

1 p.m. ET on CBS

What a tough and interesting slate.

I have gone back and forth on so many games — the Bengals against the Steelers, the Colts against the Jets, the Pats against the Chiefs. But I’m settling on the Chargers against the Browns.

I’m normally a home dog backer and I loved the Browns last week. But I can’t pull the trigger this week.

Cleveland is a bit inflated because of its win over Baltimore, however I faded the Ravens last week because I thought they were a one-dimensional team with a good-not-great quarterback. The Chargers are the opposite of that. They can move the ball easily, whether it’s rushing or passing, and have decidedly more weapons than the Ravens.

Defensively, the Browns pass defense gives up a lot of yards, but Cleveland is actually one of the better teams in yards per play. The Browns are mediocre against the run, which is where I think the Chargers can take advantage.

PJ Walsh: Chargers-Browns Under 45

1 p.m. ET on CBS

The Browns have struggled across the board on offense, ranking 30th in Football Outsiders’ offensive DVOA, so the key for this over/under will be limiting the Chargers’ passing offense (third in DVOA).

Cleveland is uniquely positioned to do that, ranking second in pass defense per DVOA. Los Angeles is also one of the slower offenses in the NFL, averaging only 61.4 plays per game according to Team Rankings.

Finally, the current forecast is calling for steady 13 mph winds, which will make it more difficult for both teams to hit big plays through the air. Since 2003, unders are 439-351-10 (56%) in games with double-digit winds.

Sean Koerner: Dolphins +3.5 (vs. Bears)

1 p.m. ET on FOX

Much like my Seahawks +7 pick last week, this is another game where I am not implying the wrong team is favored. I’m simply taking the value offered here.

Look, there are plenty of metrics that will show the Bears have a big advantage over the Dolphins this week.

I’m going to play devil’s advocate here and say that four games of data is a pretty small sample size, so we should not be taking the numbers at face value.

Instead, I typically use them to update my priors to come up with a current power rating for each team.

I have come to the same conclusion that the Bears should be favored in this game, but I have them at -2.5, which happened to be the opening line.

The hype around the Bears is well deserved, but it also let this line drift a bit too far, as it sailed past key numbers like -3 and -3.5 at one point.

This tells me it wasn’t met with much resistance from sharps, but it feels like some of them knew it would get all the way to -4.

Sure enough, when the Dolphins got up to +4, they were bet back down to +3.5. But it’s worth monitoring to see if it gets back up to 4 before kick.

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