NFL Picks For the Conference Championships: Packers vs. Buccaneers & Bills vs. Chiefs
Chris Graythen/Getty Images. Pictured: Tom Brady
We football fans have been truly blessed in 2021: Super Wild Card Weekend and the Divisional Round disappointed not at all, and the Conference Championships look promising.
Although I’m not a trends bettor, I find that using our Action Labs database helps me identify spots I should consider further when analyzing games.
Let’s take a look at some trends for the early spreads and totals for Packers-Buccaneers and Chiefs-Bills.
All lines are from our NFL Odds page.
Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI).
Packers (-3.5) vs. Buccaneers
Kickoff: 3:05 p.m. ET on Sunday | TV: FOX
I like money, so I tend to bet on Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers unless I see a compelling reason not to, and I don’t see one here.
Rodgers simply wins.
For his career, he’s an A-graded 120-84-5 ATS (15.1% ROI).
And he’s been especially dominant at home, going 62-35-4 ATS (24.1% ROI) at Lambeau Field.
Even without 80,000 fans, the Packers still have a true home-field advantage because of the weather. Rodgers can play at a high level in cold temperatures.
At this stage of his career, I’m skeptical as to whether 43-year-old Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady can.
Getting Rodgers at less than a touchdown at home is a gift.
- Action: Packers -3.5 (-112) at FanDuel
- Limit: Packers -6 (-110)
Bills (+3) at Chiefs
Kickoff: 6:40 p.m. ET on Sunday | TV: CBS
I can’t help myself. The Bills are an outstanding 12-6 ATS (28.6% ROI) this year, and for his career, quarterback Josh Allen is 27-17-2 ATS (18.0% ROI).
He has been especially good as an underdog and on the road.
- Underdog: 14-6-2 ATS | 31.8% ROI
- Visitor: 13-5-2 ATS | 35.4% ROI
And as a road dog, Allen is an exceptional 8-2-2 ATS (45.0% ROI).
After opening the year on fire, the Bills cooled off over the middle of the season, but they’re 9-1 ATS (74.0% ROI) since Week 9 with an average cover margin of +12.6 points.
Add in the possibility that Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (concussion) might not be ready to play this weekend, and I must back the Bills.
- Action: Bills +3 (-115) at BetMGM
- Limit: Bills PK (-110)
Matthew Freedman is 994-783-37 (55.9%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.