Sunday’s Best Week 4 NFL Prop Bets: Jared Goff TDs & More
Photo credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jared Goff
- Mike Randle breaks down his five favorite NFL prop bets for Sunday's main slate.
- See how to bet touchdown passing over/unders for Marcus Mariota and Jared Goff.
NFL player prop bets offer tremendous value on the board every week. They receive less action and money than the traditional bets, so savvy bettors can gain a big edge by reacting to news quicker than the books.
The betting lines for prop bets are often less efficient than NFL sides and totals, opening up attractive opportunities.
One of the best resources to help determine which prop bets to wager is our FantasyLabs Player Props tool.
We leverage the listed prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.
Each prop bet receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.
After last week’s perfect 5-0 result, let’s take a look at five props with a Bet Quality of at least eight for Sunday’s main slate. This season, props with a grade of 8 or higher are 235-147-1 (61.4% win rate).
Titans QB Marcus Mariota
THE PICK: Over 0.5 Passing Touchdowns (-240)
Bet Quality: 10/10
The Atlanta defense is allowing the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and the fifth most to opposing wide receivers. While Tennessee quarterback Marcus Mariota has struggled this year, I have confidence he’ll reach the one passing touchdown necessary to win this prop.
This season, each quarterback who has faced the Falcons has thrown a touchdown pass, including two by the Colts’ Jacoby Brissett in Atlanta’s 27-24 loss last Sunday. Injuries have again hurt the Falcons defense with safety Keanu Neal (Achilles’) out for the season, and defensive linemen Grady Jarrett (toe) and Takk McKinley (knee) nursing injuries.
The Titans will benefit from extra time to prepare after their Thursday Night loss at Jacksonville. They face an Atlanta defense that ranks only 23rd in sacks (five) and 20th in quarterback hits (17). Mariota should have time in the pocket to go through his progressions.
Since the beginning of this season, 10-rated passing touchdown props have hit at a 71.4% (10-4) rate. Even with the high juice, take Mariota to get the Titans in the end zone at least once via the pass.
Vikings TE Irv Smith
THE PICK: Over 1.5 Receptions (-109)
Bet Quality: 10/10
In an NFC North battle between two strong defensive teams, our next prop is based on Vikings rookie tight end Irv Smith. Per PlayerProfiler, the second-round pick increased his snap share to 49.2% last week, catching his three targets for 60 total receiving yards.
Smith is a much more athletic and dangerous receiving target than teammate Kyle Rudolph. The rookie has 4.63 40-yard dash speed at 6-foot-2 and weighing 242 pounds. Minnesota lacks a third wide receiver of any consequence, bringing back the recently released Laquon Treadwell.
Rudolph is being used primarily as a blocker, running only two more routes than Smith last week with just one reception. Against Chicago’s third-best run DVOA defense, Smith should see a season high in routes run and receptions. Minnesota will likely use 12 personnel packages to help block Chicago’s ferocious pass rush.
The Bears defense has been vulnerable against opposing tight ends, allowing the eighth-most receptions this season.
In a close, defensive struggle, look for Chicago to focus on stopping running back Dalvin Cook and wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. This should enable Smith to total the two receptions needed to cash this 10-rated prop.
Titans RB Dion Lewis
THE PICK: Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (+120)
Bet Quality: 10/10
The Titans have vastly underutilized satellite back Dion Lewis, who has just six targets and three receptions on the season. Look for Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel to change that script on Sunday at Atlanta.
The Falcons have been the worst NFL team at defending passes to running backs, allowing league highs in both 2017 (110 receptions) and 2018 (117 receptions). Atlanta will need to focus defensive attention on Titans running back Derrick Henry, providing an opportunity for Lewis to have his best game of the season.
Lewis received four or more target in 56.3% of the games last year and has two games with only one target this season. Look for positive regression to help the speedy Lewis in an ideal environment in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
This prop offers the best juice of any 10-rated prop this week. This season, 10-rated props are winning at a 64% (60-33-1) rate.
Our projection of 14.6 yards is 26% above the implied total.
Chiefs WR Demarcus Robinson
THE PICK: Over 2.5 Receptions (-182)
Bet Quality: 8/10
Detroit cornerback Darius Slay has been playing at an elite level over the Lions’ last eight games, but his questionable status is bad news for Sunday’s game against the explosive Chiefs. Even if Slay plays, he probably will focus on Kansas City’s wide receiver Sammy Watkins, leaving teammate Demarcus Robinson to have another big game.
Robinson is first among all wide receivers in yards per target and will benefit from a Matt Patricia defense that prioritizes defending the tight end. The Lions have allowed only seven receptions to opposing tight ends and the third-fewest receiving yards (93).
Robinson’s usage has skyrocketed after Tyreek Hill’s injury, having run 70 routes the last two weeks.
Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes has thrown at least three touchdown passes in seven consecutive road games and this will be his first game indoors. The Chiefs are averaging 33.7 points per game and totaled 38.2 points per game on the road last year.
With Slay limited and the Lions focusing on Kelce, Robinson has a good chance to hit this 8-rated prop, needing only three receptions.
This season, 8-rated props are hitting at a 57% (113-86) win rate.
Rams QB Jared Goff
THE PICK: Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-177)
Bet Quality: 8/10
Last season, Rams quarterback Jared Goff was lethal when playing at home.
This week he faces a Tampa Bay defense that just allowed New York rookie Daniel Jones to throw for 336 yards and two touchdowns at home. The Buccaneers are also a pass funnel team, ranking second best among all teams in run defense DVOA.
Goff’s play has been sporadic this season, finishing outside the top 23 fantasy quarterbacks in two of the first three games. Regardless, he did throw two touchdowns in a tough road game at Cleveland on Sunday night and was a Cooper Kupp knee away from having two touchdown passes against the Saints at home.
This is a “get-right” spot for Goff, in a game with the second-highest over/under (49) on the Sunday main slate. We are betting on positive regression with Goff having a good chance to eclipse the 1.5 passing touchdown total with a high-volume game script.
We project Goff’s passing touchdowns 13% higher than the implied total of 1.8 for this 8 out of 10 rated prop bet.