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Post-Free Agency NFL Player Props: Picks for Baker Mayfield, DeSean Jackson, More

Mar 16, 2019 10:50 PM EDT
Credit:

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Baker Mayfield, DeSean Jackson

  • Many players have signed with or been traded to new teams in the first few days of NFL free agency.
  • Matthew Freedman breaks down the 2019 props for all the skill-position players with new situations.

The 2019 NFL calendar year has opened with a whirlwind of free-agent signings and landscape-altering trades.

With these moves, sportsbooks have released 2019 props for players in new situations. For some of the big-name players, I’ve written individual pieces.

Of the remaining player props in the market, here are the ones that have caught my eye.

For daily performance-based player props, follow me in The Action Network app.

Baker Mayfield Props

  • 4,200.5 passing yards: Over -115, Under -115
  • 29.5 touchdown passes: Over -115, Under -115
  • 15.5 interceptions: Over -115, Under -115

In his 13 starts last year as a rookie, Mayfield passed for 3,524 yards and 27 touchdowns with 14 interceptions, which would give him 4,337.2 yards, 33.2 touchdowns and 17.2 interceptions extrapolated over 16 games.

I expect him to be even better as a second-year professional, especially with the addition of wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. and offensive coordinator Todd Monken.

Before he really declined, Giants quarterback Eli Manning averaged 4,289.7 yards, 30.3 touchdowns and 14.7 interceptions per year in 2014-16, when Beckham played 14.3 games per season.

If the aging Eli could hit those marks with OBJ, there’s little reason to think that Mayfield won’t.

And last year, Monken’s Buccaneers offense was first and third in the league with 5,125 yards and 36 touchdowns passing. It also had an NFL-worst 26 interceptions, but I expect Mayfield to be more accurate than the gun-slinging Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick.

THE PICKS: Over 4,200.5 yards (-115); Over 29.5 touchdowns (-115); Under 15.5 interceptions (-115)

Nick Foles Props

  • 3,500.5 passing yards: Over -115, Under -115
  • 21.5 touchdown passes: Over -115, Under -115
  • 12.5 interceptions: Over -115, Under -115

Never in his career has the new Jaguars quarterback passed for even 3,000 yards in a season. In his strong 2013 campaign, when he led the league with 10.5 adjusted yards per attempt, Foles had just 2,891.

At the same time, only once has he started more than 10 games in a season: He set his career-high mark of 11 starts in 2015 with the hapless Jeff Fisher-led Rams.