NFL Playoff Picture: Our Simulations Rank Every Team’s Postseason Chances

NFL Playoff Picture: Our Simulations Rank Every Team’s Postseason Chances article feature image

Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Lamar Jackson

  • The NFL playoff picture is still very uncertain entering Week 10.
  • Our simulations project the finish for both conferences, as well as each team's chances to make the playoffs, win the division and win Super Bowl 54.

Things are looking good for the Baltimore Ravens.

Our Bet Labs model — which simulates the rest of the season 10,000 times — gives Lamar Jackson and Co. the second-best chance to win the AFC (38.59%) and fifth-best chance to win the Super Bowl (6.41%) following their big primetime victory over the New England Patriots.

So how does our model project every team’s postseason chances heading into Week 10? We’ll rank the odds for all 32 and much more below, but before we dig in, let’s take a quick look at the current playoff standings.

Note: You can sift through every team’s chances to secure specific playoff seeding and much more in the table at the very end of this story.

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Current NFL Playoff Picture & Standings

AFC Playoff Picture & Standings

  1. New England Patriots (8-1)
  2. Baltimore Ravens (6-2)
  3. Houston Texans (6-3)
  4. Kansas City Chiefs (6-3)
  5. Buffalo Bills (6-2)
  6. Indianapolis Colts (5-3)

NFC Playoff Picture & Standings

  1. San Francisco 49ers (8-0)
  2. New Orleans Saints (7-1)
  3. Green Bay Packers (7-2)
  4. Dallas Cowboys (5-3)
  5. Seattle Seahawks (7-2)
  6. Minnesota Vikings (6-3)

2019 NFL Playoff Rankings & Projections

1. New England Patriots

  • Chance to make playoffs: 99.98%
  • Chance to win division: 97.46%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 27.65%

The Ravens spoiled the Patriots’ shot to go 16-0 and dropped their chances of securing the AFC’s 1-seed from 92.20% to 75.23%.

2. San Francisco 49ers

  • Chance to make playoffs: 97.82%
  • Chance to win division: 83.29%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 16.43%

The 49ers are the last undefeated team and are staring down a big NFC West showdown against the 7-2 Seahawks on Monday Night Football.

3. New Orleans Saints

  • Chance to make playoffs: 97.45%
  • Chance to win division: 93.12%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 18.74%

The Saints don’t sit atop the NFC, but our model does give them a marginally better chance of winning the conference title (56.99%) than the Niners (54.21%), and thus the better chance to win the Super Bowl.

4. Baltimore Ravens

  • Chance to make playoffs: 94.67%
  • Chance to win division: 89.85%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 6.41%

The Ravens’ statement win over the Patriots has catapulted them up our AFC projections. Baltimore now has a 42.08% chance of securing a first-round bye.

5. Kansas City Chiefs

  • Chance to make playoffs: 89.32%
  • Chance to win division: 85.04%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 7.45%

The Chiefs nabbed a big win over Minnesota on a game-ending field goal and are now hoping to get Patrick Mahomes back for Week 10.

6. Green Bay Packers

  • Chance to make playoffs: 86.63%
  • Chance to win division: 74.04%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 4.80%

The Packers are coming off a tough road loss to the Chargers, but are still in the driver’s seat of the NFC North with the best chance to win the division (by far).

7. Houston Texans

  • Chance to make playoffs: 86.28%
  • Chance to win division: 61.71%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 3.80%

Deshaun Watson and the Texans head into their bye with a statement 26-3 win over Jacksonville, improving their chances to win the AFC South from 40.74% to 61.71%.

8. Buffalo Bills

  • Chance to make playoffs: 72.08%
  • Chance to win division: 2.54%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.50%

The Bills cruised to a win over Washington and now head to Cleveland. They’ve covered all three of their road games this season.

9. Dallas Cowboys

  • Chance to make playoffs: 66.70%
  • Chance to win division: 62.12%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 2.85%

The Cowboys maintain their division-best chances to win the NFC East, but could stand to create more separation between them and the Eagles.

10. Minnesota Vikings

  • Chance to make playoffs: 61.75%
  • Chance to win division: 24.05%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 2.80%

The Vikings are firmly in the NFC wild-card race and still have a fighting chance in the division, but have to face two NFC contenders on the road over their next three games.

fantasy-football-half-ppr-rankings-flex-week 8-2019
Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dalvin Cook, Stefon Diggs

11. Indianapolis Colts

  • Chance to make playoffs: 60.63%
  • Chance to win division: 33.86%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.98%

The Colts have taken a backseat to the Texans in the AFC South race with last week’s loss.

12. Seattle Seahawks

  • Chance to make playoffs: 58.84%
  • Chance to win division: 11.96%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 1.65%

The Niners are a roadblock in the Seahawks’ path to the postseason, but at 7-2, Seattle is firmly in the NFC wild-card race.

13. Los Angeles Rams

  • Chance to make playoffs: 52.27%
  • Chance to win division: 4.75%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 2.80%

The reigning NFC champs now sit third in their own division, though our sims still give them a greater than 50% chance of making the postseason.

14. Philadelphia Eagles

  • Chance to make playoffs: 47.64%
  • Chance to win division: 37.77%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 1.58%

The Eagles will host the Patriots and Seahawks after the bye, but can look forward to an ultra-soft three-game stretch after that: at the Dolphins, vs. the Giants and at the Redskins.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Chance to make playoffs: 37.05%
  • Chance to win division: 8.54%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.39%

The Steelers are winners of three straight, and with the exception of Sunday’s matchup with the Rams and a Week 17 date in Baltimore, they have a pretty favorable rest-of-season schedule.

16. Carolina Panthers

  • Chance to make playoffs: 24.14%
  • Chance to win division: 6.82%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.47%

The Panthers placed Cam Newton on Injured Reserve on Tuesday, but not all hope is lost in Carolina. They’re 5-1 in Kyle Allen’s starts and still have a fighting chance at the postseason.

18. Los Angeles Chargers

  • Chance to make playoffs: 20.36%
  • Chance to win division: 10.30%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.40%

A win in Oakland this Thursday night would go a long way in improving the Chargers’ standing in the AFC wild-card race.

17. Oakland Raiders

  • Chance to make playoffs: 14.45%
  • Chance to win division: 4.20%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.03%

After opening as a pick’em, the Raiders have been bet down to home underdogs for Thursday night’s AFC West showdown.

19. Tennessee Titans

  • Chance to make playoffs: 9.40%
  • Chance to win division: 3.01%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.09%

Coming off a 30-20 loss to the Panthers, the Titans draw another tough matchup against the Chiefs, who could welcome Mahomes back for Sunday’s matchup.

20. Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Chance to make playoffs: 8.59%
  • Chance to win division: 1.42%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.04%

With last week’s loss, the Jaguars now sit below .500 and third in the AFC South. Nick Foles will return as the starter following their Week 10 bye.

21. Cleveland Browns

  • Chance to make playoffs: 5.78%
  • Chance to win division: 1.61%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.01%

After falling to the Broncos, the Browns are down to a season-worst 5.78% chance at making the postseason, further crushing bettors who bought the over on their win total and Super Bowl futures.

22. Detroit Lions

  • Chance to make playoffs: 3.17%
  • Chance to win division: 1.12%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.04%

After losing to the Raiders, there’s even fewer notes of interest for the Lions and their middling season.

23. Chicago Bears

  • Chance to make playoffs: 2.90%
  • Chance to win division: 0.79%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.07%

Another swift fall for a 2018 NFC contender. The Bears are now 3-5 and sit in last place of the division they won just last season.

24. Denver Broncos

  • Chance to make playoffs: 1.30%
  • Chance to win division: 0.46%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.01%

The Broncos improved to 3-6 with their win over Cleveland, but their average draft position according to our sims fell from 7.3 to 9.

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Vic Fangio

25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Chance to make playoffs: 0.30%
  • Chance to win division: 0.05%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%

The Buccaneers forced overtime against the Seahawks in Seattle but eventually lost, falling to 2-6.

26. Arizona Cardinals

  • Chance to make playoffs: 0.26%
  • Chance to win division: 0.00%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%

The Cardinals played the Niners close last Thursday night, losing 28-25. They’re far back in a crowded NFC West.

27. New York Giants

  • Chance to make playoffs: 0.12%
  • Chance to win division: 0.11%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.01%

There isn’t much to report here, though the Giants did improve their projected draft position from 7.7 to 6.7 following Monday night’s loss.

28. New York Jets

  • Chance to make playoffs: 0.11%
  • Chance to win division: 0.00%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%

The fact that the Jets gave the Dolphins their first win of 2019 is all you really need to know about this New York team.

29. Atlanta Falcons

  • Chance to make playoffs: 0.01%
  • Chance to win division: 0.01%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%

The 1-7 Falcons head to the Superdome to take on New Orleans as 13-point underdogs off their bye — not exactly what we could’ve expected from a team with a preseason win total of 8.5.

T-32. Cincinnati Bengals

  • Chance to make playoffs: 0.00%
  • Chance to win division: 0.00%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%

The 0-8 Bengals are benching Andy Dalton and will start rookie Ryan Finley in their return from bye.

T-32. Miami Dolphins

  • Chance to make playoffs: 0.00%
  • Chance to win division: 0.00%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%

They finally did it. The Dolphins got their first win of 2019 with a 26-18 victory over the Jets, dropping their chances at the first overall pick in the 2020 draft from 72.34% to 43.18% in the process.

T-32. Washington Redskins

  • Chance to make playoffs: 0.00%
  • Chance to win division: 0.00%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%

Good news: Dwayne Haskins didn’t throw any interceptions in his first start. Bad news: He didn’t throw any touchdowns, either. As such, Bill Callahan is waiting to name a starter until after their Week 10 bye.

Our Full 2019 NFL Playoff Projections

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