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Week 15 NFL Playoff Picture, Bracket, Odds: Chargers Stun Chiefs, Stay Alive in AFC West

Dec 14, 2018 11:30 PM EST
Credit:

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Joey Bosa and Tyreek Hill

  • The Los Angeles Chargers pulled a stunning come-from-behind upset over the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday Night Football.
  • The win pulls LA even with KC at 11-3. But the Chiefs maintain their spot atop the AFC because they have a better divisional record than the Chargers.
  • We run through the full playoff picture and odds entering Week 15 below, including how the Chargers' and Chiefs' postseason chances and AFC standings would shift depending on the result of tonight's game.

For better or worse, we have a Thursday Night Football game with loads of postseason implications.

Chargers 😍 … Chiefs 🤑 … On four days rest 😞 …

Let’s take a look at the playoff bracket as it stands now, along with each team’s odds of making the dance, winning their division, getting a first-round bye and securing the No. 1 overall seed.

Standings as of Thursday evening; odds as of Thursday afternoon.

Week 15 NFL Playoff Picture, Odds

Teams are ordered by the current playoff standings. Projections below are from our Bet Labs simulations, which run the each team’s remaining schedule 10,000 times.

AFC Playoff Picture, Odds

With the Chargers’ win over the Chiefs, LA pulled even with KC at 11-3. The Chiefs held on to the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC due to having a better divisional record than the Chargers (4-1 vs. 3-2).

LA clinched a playoff berth with its victory on Thursday Night, and once we re-run our simulations overnight, its odds to win the AFC West should improve from 10.8% to around 23%.

The Chiefs blew a 14-point lead with less than five minutes remaining. A win would’ve locked down a first-round bye, but now they’ve in a fight just to finish atop the AFC West.

1. Kansas City Chiefs (11-3)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 100%
  • Chance to win division: 89.2%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 88.3%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 81.6%

2. New England Patriots (9-4)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 99.2%
  • Chance to win division: 97.6%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 73.3%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 6.4%

3. Houston Texans (9-4)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 98.6%
  • Chance to win division: 90.7%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 26.7%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 1.5%

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5-1)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 59%
  • Chance to win division: 58%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 0.1%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 0.0%

5. Los Angeles Chargers (11-3)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 99.9%
  • Chance to win division: 10.8%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 10.7%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 10.5%

6. Baltimore Ravens (7-6)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 52%
  • Chance to win division: 41%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 0.1%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 0.0%

7. Indianapolis Colts (7-6)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 45.3%
  • Chance to win division: 4.5%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 0.1%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 0.0%

8. Miami Dolphins (7-6)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 15.3%
  • Chance to win division: 2.4%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 0.2%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 0.0%

9. Tennessee Titans (7-6)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 27.2%
  • Chance to win division: 4.8%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 0.6%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 0.0%

10. Denver Broncos (6-7)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 2.4%
  • Chance to win division: 0.0%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 0.0%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 0.0%

Current AFC Wild Card Bracket

  • No. 6 Baltimore Ravens at No. 3 Houston Texans
  • No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers at No. 4 Pittsburgh Steelers 
  • BYES: Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots

NFC Playoff Picture, Odds

1. New Orleans Saints (11-2)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 100%
  • Chance to win division: 100%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 95.9%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 58.1%

2. Los Angeles Rams (11-2)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 100%
  • Chance to win division: 100%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 97.9%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 41.7%

3. Chicago Bears (9-4)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 100%
  • Chance to win division: 98.7%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 6%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 0.2%

4. Dallas Cowboys (8-5)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 99.5%
  • Chance to win division: 99.2%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 0.2%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 0.0%

5. Seattle Seahawks (8-5)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 99.9%
  • Chance to win division: 0.0%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 0.0%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 0.0%

6. Minnesota Vikings (6-6-1)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 46.9%
  • Chance to win division: 1.3%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 0.0%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 0.0%

7. Carolina Panthers (6-7)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 15.6%
  • Chance to win division: 0.0%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 0.0%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 0.0%

8. Philadelphia Eagles (6-7)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 20.5%
  • Chance to win division: 0.7%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 0.0%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 0.0%

9. Washington Redskins (6-7)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 7.9%
  • Chance to win division: 0.1%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 0.0%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 0.0%

Current NFC Wild Card Bracket

  • No. 6 Minnesota Vikings at No. 3 Chicago Bears
  • No. 5 Seattle Seahawks at No. 4 Dallas Cowboys 
  • BYES: New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams
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