Week 14 NFL Playoff Picture, Bracket, Odds: Seahawks Hold Onto NFC’s Top Wild Card Spot

Dec 11, 2018 11:00 AM EST
Credit:

Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Frank Clark

  • The Saints are the NFC's new No. 1 seed after the Rams lost to the Bears, while the Seahawks held onto the top wild card spot with Monday night's win over the Vikings.
  • Kansas City came out of Week 14 with a two-game lead in the AFC after beating the Ravens and seeing the Patriots and Texans both lose in upset fashion.
  • Check out the playoff standings for the AFC and NFC after Week 14, along with each team's odds to make the playoffs, win their division, get a first-round bye and secure the No. 1 seed, according to our simulations.

Now things get interesting.

We have just four weeks of regular-season football left, and with tight races across the board for divisions and home-field advantage, we’re in for a doozy of a Sunday.

Let’s take a look at the playoff bracket as it stands now, along with each team’s odds of making the dance, winning their division, getting a first-round bye and securing the No. 1 overall seed.

Standings and odds thru Tuesday afternoon.

NFL Playoff Picture, Odds

Teams are ordered by the current playoff standings. Projections below are from our Bet Labs simulations, which run the each team’s remaining schedule 10,000 times.

AFC Playoff Picture, Odds

The final 30 minutes of the early afternoon slate could not have gone better for Chiefs fans.

As K.C. was completing a comeback against the Ravens in overtime, New England allowed a game-losing miracle touchdown vs. Miami and Houston suffered a home upset to the Colts.

The result: Kansas City, which entered the week with a 49.1% chance to get the No. 1 seed, is now a considerable favorite to have home-field throughout the AFC playoffs (81.6%).

The Patriots still control their own destiny for the No. 2 seed, as they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Texans.

Indy continues to inch its way up the standings after upsetting Houston as 4.5-point road favorites. The win improved the Colts’ playoff odds from 13.0% to 45.3%.

As it stands now, the Colts would lose the tiebreaker with Baltimore for the No. 6 seed due to having a worse AFC record (Ravens are 6-4; Colts are 6-5).

The Steelers’ shocking loss to the Raiders doesn’t hurt their chances of winning the AFC North much, as they lost no ground to the second-place Ravens.

1. Kansas City Chiefs (11-2)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 100%
  • Chance to win division: 89.2%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 88.3%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 81.6%

2. New England Patriots (9-4)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 99.2%
  • Chance to win division: 97.6%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 73.3%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 6.4%

3. Houston Texans (9-4)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 98.6%
  • Chance to win division: 90.7%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 26.7%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 1.5%

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5-1)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 59%
  • Chance to win division: 58%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 0.1%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 0.0%

5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-3)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 99.9%
  • Chance to win division: 10.8%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 10.7%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 10.5%

6. Baltimore Ravens (7-6)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 52%
  • Chance to win division: 41%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 0.1%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 0.0%

7. Indianapolis Colts (7-6)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 45.3%
  • Chance to win division: 4.5%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 0.1%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 0.0%

8. Miami Dolphins (7-6)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 15.3%
  • Chance to win division: 2.4%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 0.2%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 0.0%

9. Tennessee Titans (7-6)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 27.2%
  • Chance to win division: 4.8%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 0.6%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 0.0%

10. Denver Broncos (6-7)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 2.4%
  • Chance to win division: 0.0%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 0.0%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 0.0%

Current AFC Wild Card Bracket

  • No. 6 Baltimore Ravens at No. 3 Houston Texans
  • No. 5 Los Angeles Chargers at No. 4 Pittsburgh Steelers 
  • BYES: Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots

NFC Playoff Picture, Odds

The Cowboys are officially in full control of the NFC East after beating the Eagles to notch their fourth consecutive win. With a two-game lead in hand, they now have a 99.2% chance of winning the division.

The Saints were down 14-3 against the Bucs on Sunday, before they kicked it into gear. Not only did New Orleans end up winning; it covered the spread, scoring 25 unanswered points.

It was a massive victory for the Saints, who ended the night atop the NFC, thanks to the Bears upsetting the Rams on Sunday Night Football. (New Orleans holds the tiebreaker over LA after winning head-to-head earlier this season.)

The Saints’ odds of securing the No. 1 seed jumped from 31.3% to 58.1% after a fortuitous Sunday.

The Seahawks defense dominated in Monday night’s 21-7 win over the Vikings, though it did not change their respective No. 5 and 6 seedings.

1. New Orleans Saints (11-2)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 100%
  • Chance to win division: 100%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 95.9%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 58.1%

2. Los Angeles Rams (11-2)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 100%
  • Chance to win division: 100%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 97.9%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 41.7%

3. Chicago Bears (9-4)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 100%
  • Chance to win division: 98.7%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 6%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 0.2%

4. Dallas Cowboys (8-5)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 99.5%
  • Chance to win division: 99.2%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 0.2%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 0.0%

5. Seattle Seahawks (8-5)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 99.9%
  • Chance to win division: 0.0%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 0.0%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 0.0%

6. Minnesota Vikings (6-6-1)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 46.9%
  • Chance to win division: 1.3%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 0.0%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 0.0%

7. Carolina Panthers (6-7)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 15.6%
  • Chance to win division: 0.0%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 0.0%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 0.0%

8. Philadelphia Eagles (6-7)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 20.5%
  • Chance to win division: 0.7%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 0.0%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 0.0%

9. Washington Redskins (6-7)

  • Chance to make the playoffs: 7.9%
  • Chance to win division: 0.1%
  • Chance to get first-round bye: 0.0%
  • Chance to get No. 1 seed: 0.0%

Current NFC Wild Card Bracket

  • No. 6 Minnesota Vikings at No. 3 Chicago Bears
  • No. 5 Seattle Seahawks at No. 4 Dallas Cowboys 
  • BYES: New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams
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