NFL Playoff Picks: Our Favorite Bets for Every Divisional Round Matchup

Jan 13, 2019 07:30 AM EST
Credit:

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Todd Gurley, Drew Brees and Tyreek Hill

  • The Action Network's NFL experts break down their favorite Divisional Round bets, including Colts-Chiefs and Eagles-Saints.
  • We also have against-the-spread and over/under picks for Cowboys-Rams and Chargers-Patriots.

College football has sadly come to an end, but the Divisional Round might just be the best weekend of the NFL season.

Remember last season’s Divisional Round? Let me jog your memory:

  • The Eagles held off the Falcons with a goal-line stand to win 15-10;
  • The Jaguars upset the Steelers in a 45-42 thriller;
  • The Vikings stunned the Saints on a last-second prayer to win 29-24.

Oh, and the Patriots rolled the Titans. Three out of four thrillers ain’t bad.

To help narrow down your final wagers for the weekend, our staff has angles on all four games — including sides, over/unders and even a player prop for Eagles-Saints. And for even more analysis, check out our in-depth betting guides.

Our staff picks are 148-133-16 (52.7%) for the 2018-19 NFL season, including last week’s wild-card selections.


>> All odds pulled on Jan. 10, so slight line variations are possible. Download The Action Network app to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.


Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots

  • Spread: Patriots -4
  • Over/Under: 47.5
  • Time: Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

John Ewing: Chargers +4

The Chargers are the most popular bet of the week, just as they were last week. And while I often fade the public, casual bettors are on the right side.

Our NFL simulations from Bet Labs makes this line -3, which suggests that it’s inflated for the Patriots.

We’ve established that the Patriots struggle to cover when Tom Brady gets sacked: They’re 39-43-4 ATS when he’s sacked three or more times. Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram and the Chargers sacked Lamar Jackson seven times last Sunday. I expect LA to harass Brady, too.

Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Melvin Ingram, Joey Bosa

The Chargers should also be able to slow down the rest of the Patriots’ offense — LA is the only defense remaining that ranks inside the top 10 in Football Outsiders’ rushing and passing DVOA.

Ryan Collinsworth: Chargers Team Total Over 21.5

We’re gonna keep hammering the Patriots’ historical struggles against elite pass rushes here.

New England has faced teams in the playoffs with a Pro Football Focus pass rush grade of 30 or higher seven times since 2006. In those seven games, opponents have gone over their implied team total five times — and have averaged 27.3 points per game.

I’m also relatively unconcerned about the effect of the Chargers’ cross-country travel — they’ve won each of their East Coast road games this season.