Koerner: My Betting Angles for Chargers-Patriots, Other 3 NFL Divisional Round Games
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Justin Houston, Sony Michel and Michael Thomas
- Sean Koerner runs through each of the four NFL Divisional Round games from a betting perspective.
- How do the spread and over/under compare to our proprietary power ratings? And where can you find betting value.
Each week, I release an updated version of The Action Network’s NFL Power Rankings. These ratings mirror those used by Vegas oddsmakers and project NFL point spreads each week.
Below I’ve listed each matchup with the actual consensus spread (via The Action Network App) and compared them to our numbers and added a few thoughts on each matchup.
Betting odds: Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots
- Actual spread: Patriots -4
- The Action Network spread: Patriots -4.9
We discussed this matchup at length on our Divisional Round Fantasy Flex podcast. It is a tricky spread to dissect. A sharp NFL expert would realize that the Chargers are the better team on paper and this matchup sets up well for them.
But there is no denying that betting against Brady and Belichick in January is a scary side to be on.
I felt this number would open around -4.5, which it did. Despite 60%+ of the tickets on the Chargers we’ve only seen this drop to -4.
If sharps were fully aligned on LA, the line would have pushed harder to a key number like -3.5, but it didn’t quite get there.
So I’m thinking this is more of a split-decision, and not a side I feel too comfortable on one way or another.
After some wild line movement earlier in the week, the total has ended right back up around my number (47).
Rumors about 3-5 inches of snow caused the initial drop to 45/45.5, but with the weather report clearing up (0% chance of snow), we have seen the total creep back up to 47.5.
So don’t read too much into this line move; the over/under appears to have settled where there is no value on either side.