Koerner: The ‘Most Yardage’ Props With Betting Value for NFL Conference Championships

Koerner: The ‘Most Yardage’ Props With Betting Value for NFL Conference Championships article feature image
Credit:

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Sony Michel, Michael Thomas and Patrick Mahomes

  • Sportsbooks are offering odds for which players will accumulate the most rushing, passing and receiving yards during the NFL's Championship Weekend.
  • Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to lead all QBs in passing yardage, while Todd Gurley has the shortest odds to win this weekend's rushing crown.
  • Sean Koerner details the bets with the most value.

It’s been a successful couple of weeks navigating the “most yardage” props, cashing Michael Thomas at 8-1 and Sony Michel at 9-2 (he pushed with Damien Williams) in the Divisional Round, along with Marlon Mack at 9-1 two weeks ago.

Remember, we’re still providing our Action Network fantasy rankings and plenty of other DFS content and projections over at FantasyLabs, so be sure to check all of that out throughout the week.

The NFL prop tool over at FantasyLabs is also a great resource as the games get closer; it uses my player projections to highlight the best props available in the betting market.

Now that we’ve got all of that out of the way, let’s dive into the best “most yardage” props for this week.

All odds as of 3 p.m. ET on Wednesday. Be sure to compare my “fair odds” to your book’s odds to find the best values.

Quick explainer on the odds below if you’re unfamiliar: A $100 bet on +200 odds would net you $200 in winnings. 

Most Rushing Yards

Which player will have the most rushing yards during the Divisional Round?

There is value on two backs in this market currently: Sony Michel and Alvin Kamara. Last week, we hit on Michel in this market (he pushed with Williams, so at worst, you should’ve gotten paid out at 9-2), and while his odds have shortened to 3-1, they’re still pretty far off from my fair odds, which make him the favorite at +172.

The freezing temperature at kickoff could force the Patriots to run the ball a bit more, and like I mentioned last week, the Patriots have no problems giving Michel massive workloads when the time is right.

He also benefits quite a bit from the potential that C.J. Anderson could siphon a handful of carries from Todd Gurley again this week, which hurts Gurley’s ceiling.

The other RB offering some value here is Alvin Kamara at +750. He has the big-play ability needed for this market despite only seeing 15-plus carries only five times this season (including playoffs).

He has only gained 100-plus yards once this season, so his path to winning this market likely relies on the other RBs being held in check and Kamara’s 70-90 rushing yards being enough to win in just a two-game slate.

Kamara is good insurance on Michel who warrants a larger play.

Bet with value: Sony Michel (+300) and Alvin Kamara (+750)


Most Receiving Yards

Which player will have the most receiving yards during the Divisional Round?

We had Julian Edelman at 12-1 last week, and he got passed up late by Michael Thomas (8-1), who was the other of my three plays.

This week, we see Thomas appropriately priced as the market favorite and offering no value currently.

Edelman, however, again makes a good bet value at +850. He’s in great spot to have another ceiling game.

Tom-Brady-Julian-Edelman
Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Julian Edelman, Tom Brady

Once again, he is a great insurance play to Sony Michel, as the chances of one of them winning their respective market is enhanced due to the negative correlation between the two (the better game Michel has, the likely worse Edelman has — and vice versa).

The other +EV play in this market is Robert Woods at +600. He clearly has the best matchup in the Rams passing game, as he’ll face off against P.J. Williams in the slot.

It’s also unlikely the Rams can rely on the Todd Gurley/C.J. Anderson-heavy rushing attack against the Saints, as L.A. could be trailing most of this game and forced to pass more.

Woods is much more of a high-floor player, as opposed to a high-ceiling play, which makes him much more likely to win this market than usual on a small two-game slate.

Travis Kelce is worth a small play at +600, given his standing in the Chiefs’ explosive passing attack. My fair odds him closer to a 5-1 chance to take down this market

Bets with value: Julian Edelman (+850), Robert Woods (+600), Travis Kelce (+600)


Most Passing Yards

Which player will have the most rushing yards during the Divisional Round?

Patrick Mahomes (+225) is the only +EV bet in this market currently, but make sure you shop for the best number and find something north of 2-1, which are my fair odds.

The one wild card with Mahomes is the weather in K.C., which could limit the ceiling of the Chiefs’ passing game.

If snow/rain/sleet creeps into the forecast in K.C., I would be tempted to take Drew Brees at +275, who will be indoors, at home, and has the ceiling we want for this type of market.

Bets with value: Patrick Mahomes (+225), and if the weather shifts drastically in K.C., Drew Brees (+275).

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