Koerner: The ‘Most Yardage’ Props With Betting Value for NFL’s Divisional Round

Credit:

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Todd Gurley, T.Y. Hilton and Patrick Mahomes

Jan 12, 2019, 12:12 AM EST
  • Sportsbooks are offering odds for which players will accumulate the most rushing, passing and receiving yards during the NFL's Divisional Round.
  • Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to lead all QBs in passing yardage, while Ezekiel Elliott has the shortest odds to win this weekend's rushing crown.
  • Sean Koerner details the bets with the most value.

We had some fun last week analyzing props — and even cashed a few tickets, including Marlon Mack at 9-1 to lead the wild-card round in rushing yards — so let’s run it back for another weekend.

Remember, we’re still providing our Action Network fantasy rankings and plenty of other DFS content and projections over at FantasyLabs, so be sure to check all of that out throughout the week.

The NFL prop tool over at FantasyLabs is also a great resource as the games get closer; it uses my player projections to highlight the best props available in the betting market.

Now that we’ve got all of that out of the way, let’s dive into the “most yardage” props for this week.

All odds as of 7:45 p.m. ET on Wednesday. Be sure to compare my “fair odds” to your book’s odds to find the best values.

Quick explainer on the odds below if you’re unfamiliar: A $100 bet on +200 odds would net you $200 in winnings. 

Most Rushing Yards

Which player will have the most rushing yards during the Divisional Round?

Sony Michel presents the most value in the current market. He’s in the same spot as Marlon Mack last week, who I wrote up at +900 as being a value but was able to wait and get him at +950.

As we discussed on the Fantasy Flex Pod, the best way for the Patriots to attack the Chargers defense could be to go run-heavy and give Sony Michel 20-plus carries.

Michel has dealt with knee problems his rookie season and it’s something he could face his entire career.

The Patriots know when to push him to his limits and when to ease off. This is the matchup and game they are likely to push him.

Similar to my Mack and Carson plays last week, Michel is the main workhorse back for his team and he concedes passing down work to James White.

But we don’t have to worry about any passing-down work potentially taking away from his rushing yard total (the sole stat for this market).

Looking at the rest of the market, a lot of the backs are heavily featured in their pass game and are overpriced here as a result.

Todd Gurley’s status is still a bit up in the air. He is fully expected to play but we are still unsure of how healthy his knee is and whether he will carry a full workload.

If there is any news that he will be limited or that they plan on using C.J. Anderson quite a bit to limit Gurley’s touch count, be ready to throw down a bet on Ezekiel Elliott if he’s still at +200.

In a market like this with two heavy favorites, a ton of value can shift to one of them if the other’s odds drop at all.

Bet with value: Sony Michel (+900). Ezekiel Elliott would also have value at +200, if Todd Gurley is going to get a less-than-full workload.


Most Receiving Yards

Which player will have the most receiving yards during the Divisional Round?