Koerner: The ‘Most Yardage’ Props With Betting Value for NFL’s Divisional Round

Koerner: The ‘Most Yardage’ Props With Betting Value for NFL’s Divisional Round article feature image
Credit:

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Todd Gurley, T.Y. Hilton and Patrick Mahomes

  • Sportsbooks are offering odds for which players will accumulate the most rushing, passing and receiving yards during the NFL's Divisional Round.
  • Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to lead all QBs in passing yardage, while Ezekiel Elliott has the shortest odds to win this weekend's rushing crown.
  • Sean Koerner details the bets with the most value.

We had some fun last week analyzing props — and even cashed a few tickets, including Marlon Mack at 9-1 to lead the wild-card round in rushing yards — so let’s run it back for another weekend.

Remember, we’re still providing our Action Network fantasy rankings and plenty of other DFS content and projections over at FantasyLabs, so be sure to check all of that out throughout the week.

The NFL prop tool over at FantasyLabs is also a great resource as the games get closer; it uses my player projections to highlight the best props available in the betting market.

Now that we’ve got all of that out of the way, let’s dive into the “most yardage” props for this week.

All odds as of 7:45 p.m. ET on Wednesday. Be sure to compare my “fair odds” to your book’s odds to find the best values.

Quick explainer on the odds below if you’re unfamiliar: A $100 bet on +200 odds would net you $200 in winnings. 

Most Rushing Yards

Which player will have the most rushing yards during the Divisional Round?

Sony Michel presents the most value in the current market. He’s in the same spot as Marlon Mack last week, who I wrote up at +900 as being a value but was able to wait and get him at +950.

As we discussed on the Fantasy Flex Pod, the best way for the Patriots to attack the Chargers defense could be to go run-heavy and give Sony Michel 20-plus carries.

Michel has dealt with knee problems his rookie season and it’s something he could face his entire career.

The Patriots know when to push him to his limits and when to ease off. This is the matchup and game they are likely to push him.

Similar to my Mack and Carson plays last week, Michel is the main workhorse back for his team and he concedes passing down work to James White.

But we don’t have to worry about any passing-down work potentially taking away from his rushing yard total (the sole stat for this market).

Looking at the rest of the market, a lot of the backs are heavily featured in their pass game and are overpriced here as a result.

Todd Gurley’s status is still a bit up in the air. He is fully expected to play but we are still unsure of how healthy his knee is and whether he will carry a full workload.

If there is any news that he will be limited or that they plan on using C.J. Anderson quite a bit to limit Gurley’s touch count, be ready to throw down a bet on Ezekiel Elliott if he’s still at +200.

In a market like this with two heavy favorites, a ton of value can shift to one of them if the other’s odds drop at all.

Bet with value: Sony Michel (+900). Ezekiel Elliott would also have value at +200, if Todd Gurley is going to get a less-than-full workload.


Most Receiving Yards

Which player will have the most receiving yards during the Divisional Round?

T.Y. Hilton offers a bit of value here and makes a nice correlation play with Andrew Luck +350 in the passing yards market. The logic is that if one of them hits, the other is much more likely to hit, as a result.

There is a reason why books don’t let you parlay correlated events and this is a sneaky way of doing just that.

Michael Thomas‘ number at (+800) is pretty far off from what I consider to be a fair number (+561). I like him at 8-1 but would pass at anything lower than my odds.

Julian Edelman is the other value in this market at the current price of +1200. He makes an interesting negative correlation play with Sony Michel, considering if one of these players cashes, the other likely won’t.

This type of hedging makes sense when you are getting +1200 (Edelman) and +900 (Michel) odds, considering it also makes it more likely that at least one of them hits.

Tom-Brady-Julian-Edelman
Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Julian Edelman, Tom Brady

The matchup itself isn’t great for Edelman. He’s likely going to see a ton of Desmond King, who’s an elite slot corner.

But remember: Nearly every Pats pass-catcher has a tough matchup, so there is still a path to Brady forcing 10-14 targets to Edelman.

One thing needed for Edelman to hit in this market is for none of the high ceiling guys (Tyreek Hill, Brandin Cooks, Amari Cooper) to hit.

We should already have Hilton (+500) and Thomas (+800) equity, so if they hit, that’s fine!

My point is, Edleman is much more of a high-floor receiver: He won’t put up 120-plus yards, but he could get us 90-105 and can sneak in as the winner if the top guys get held in check.

Bets with value: T.Y. Hilton (+500), Michael Thomas (+800), Julian Edelman (+1200)


Most Passing Yards

Which player will have the most rushing yards during the Divisional Round?

This market was fairly weak last weekend, but the Divisional Round offers some serious firepower, as we get the QBs from the No. 1 and 2 seeds added to the pool.

Unfortunately, I don’t see any clear value at the prices posted at the time of publication. Keep an eye out for line movement or other books to post odds.

I always stress to bet +EV situations and avoid forcing bets — unless you knowingly do it for entertainment value only.

One player I can make a case for biting on here would be Andrew Luck. He was so good in the first half against the Texans last week that the Colts were able to go run-heavy and ease up on Luck’s attempts.

This week at Kansas City, he is much more likely to throw a ton throughout the entire game in order to keep up with the potent Chiefs offense.

I also see this as a correlation play with T.Y. Hilton, who I highlighted earlier as having value in the receiving yards prop market.

If Hilton ends up winning that market, it would correlate nicely with Luck, who would, in theory, be much more likely to take the passing yardage crown.

These yardage markets are all about ceiling, so I’m willing to take a bit of a chance when all signs indicate a potential ceiling game.

Bets with value: None right now, but keep an eye on the odds for Andrew Luck.

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