Koerner’s NFL Power Ratings: My Betting Approach for Every Week 3 Game

Sep 22, 2019 09:25 AM EDT

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Teddy Bridgewater, Mason Rudolph, Daniel Jones

  • Sean Koerner uses his NFL Power Ratings to find the best Week 3 bets.
  • Compare his projected spreads and over/unders to the market.

We have two massive favorites. At least three teams without future Hall of Fame quarterbacks. And two flashy young QBs facing off in the highest total game of the week.

But what are the best value bets?

Odds above as of Wednesday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet every NFL spread this season at reduced juice (-105).

Let’s compare the odds to my projected spreads and over/unders for every game to identify the best bets for Week 3, including sides in Jets-Patriots and Dolphins-Cowboys.

Titans at Jaguars

Odds: Titans -1.5; 39
My Projections: Titans -1.5; 39.5

The Titans opened as 2.5-point favorites, but despite receiving 70% of the tickets as of writing (see live public betting data here), they’ve dropped to -2. This tells me there wasn’t sharp money pushing the line toward the most valuable number in NFL betting, 3.

model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
Follow Sean Koerner on Twitter

Top Stories