NFL Power Ratings: Los Angeles Rams Most Overrated Week 14 Team
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff
- Using The Action Network's NFL Power Ratings, we look at the teams the public are overrating and underrating in Week 14.
- Comparing our Power Ratings to current point spreads reveals the biggest differences in the perception of the betting market to real value.
The word confidence comes from the Latin term fidere, which means “to trust.” To be self-confident is to trust in oneself.
Bettors believe they know which teams will cover in Week 14.
Of the 16 games on the slate, 13 feature a team getting at least 60% of spread tickets. The gamblers are confident, which means a few of these teams are likely overvalued.
By comparing the projected point spread created using The Action Network’s NFL Power Rankings to the consensus number we can determine which teams the public is overrating and underrating in Week 14.
Overrated Week 14 Teams
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears
- NFL Power Rating Spread: -1.8
- Current Spread: -3
- Value on: Bears
- Time: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC
The Rams are the only 11-win team in the NFL. Casual bettors like wagering on the best teams, which leads to squads like Los Angeles being overvalued — especially late in the season.
Since 2003, betting against teams that have won more than 80% of their games in December through the playoffs has gone 134-101-2 (57%) against the spread, per Bet Labs. More than 70% of spread tickets are on the Rams as of writing (see live data here).
New York Giants at Washington Redskins
- NFL Power Rating Spread: -2.7
- Current Spread: -3.5
- Value on: Redskins
- Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on FOX
Eli Manning and the Giants are overrated.
Checks math. Yup, that’s correct.
Following a 1-7 start, the G-Men have won three of their past four games but credit should also be given to Mark Sanchez. The former first-round pick is in line to start for the Redskins following a season-ending leg injury to Colt McCoy. On Monday Night Football against the Eagles, Sanchez completed 13-of-21 passes for 100 yards, an interception and, wait for it, one fumble — though not of the butt variety.
Eli Manning vs. Mark Sanchez. What did bettors do to deserve this?
Underrated Week 14 Teams
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks
- NFL Power Rating Spread: +2.4
- Current Spread: +3.5
- Value on: Vikings
- Time: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN
The Vikings lost to the Patriots, 24-10, in Week 13 while the Seahawks easily beat the 49ers, 43-16, at home.
Each team’s recent performance is impacting this Monday Night Football line.
Contrarian gamblers can profit from inflated lines; it’s been profitable to fade teams after a blowout win at home. Since 2003, betting against teams that won their previous game at home by 21 or more points has gone 247-192-15 (56%) ATS.
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers
- NFL Power Rating Spread: +5.2
- Current Spread: +6
- Value on: Falcons
- Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on FOX
The Packers fired Mike McCarthy following last week’s loss to the Cardinals. Historically, teams that fire their coach in-season have seen an improvement against the spread.
Since 2003, 23 previous teams have fired their coach during the season. Before the coach was canned, those teams combined to go 84-139-3 (37.7%) ATS. But after the coach was relieved of his duties, the teams went 67-65-2 (50.8%) ATS.
History suggests that the Packers (4-7-1 ATS) will improve against the spread down the stretch, but this line is still inflated.