- Using The Action Network's NFL Power Ratings, we look at the teams the public are overrating and underrating in Week 14.
- Comparing our Power Ratings to current point spreads reveals the biggest differences in the perception of the betting market to real value.
The word confidence comes from the Latin term fidere, which means “to trust.” To be self-confident is to trust in oneself.
Bettors believe they know which teams will cover in Week 14.
Of the 16 games on the slate, 13 feature a team getting at least 60% of spread tickets. The gamblers are confident, which means a few of these teams are likely overvalued.
By comparing the projected point spread created using The Action Network’s NFL Power Rankings to the consensus number we can determine which teams the public is overrating and underrating in Week 14.
Overrated Week 14 Teams
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears
- NFL Power Rating Spread: -1.8
- Current Spread: -3
- Value on: Bears
- Time: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC
The Rams are the only 11-win team in the NFL. Casual bettors like wagering on the best teams, which leads to squads like Los Angeles being overvalued — especially late in the season.
Since 2003, betting against teams that have won more than 80% of their games in December through the playoffs has gone 134-101-2 (57%) against the spread, per Bet Labs. More than 70% of spread tickets are on the Rams as of writing (see live data here).