- Using The Action Network's NFL Power Ratings, we look at the teams the public are overrating and underrating in Week 12.
- Comparing our Power Ratings to current point spreads reveals the biggest differences in the perception of the betting market to real value.
With Thanksgiving on Thursday, gamblers are getting a jump on their NFL Week 12 sports betting. The influx of early money has shifted lines and created some lopsided betting.
Of the 14 NFL games on the slate, 12 matchups have seen the line move at least one-half point and/or received at least 60% of spread tickets on one team.
By comparing the projected point spread created using The Action Network’s NFL Power Rankings to the consensus number, we can determine which teams the public is overrating and underrating in Week 12.
Note: As of Tuesday afternoon, Texans-Titans is currently off the board due to Marcus Mariota’s injury.
Overrated Week 12 Teams
New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons
- NFL Power Rating spread: -10.1
- Current Spread: -13
- Value on: Falcons
- Time: Nov. 22, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Drew Brees & Co. have won nine straight, covered the spread in eight of those games and are the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl. It is easy to understand why the Saints are massive favorites on Thanksgiving.
But it is incredible difficult, even for great teams, to cover big spreads. Since 2003, double-digit favorites in division games have gone 84-112-5 (43%) against the spread (ATS) per Bet Labs.
Even a future Hall of Famer like Brees has struggled in this scenario, going 3-8 ATS.
Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
- NFL Power Rating spread: +4.1
- Current Spread: +3
- Value on: Jaguars
- Time: Nov. 25, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Bills are overvalued? Believe it. Buffalo looked competent in a 41-10 victory over the New York Jets in Week 10.
Matt Barkley was 15 of 25 for 232 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions – his 117.4 quarterback rating was the best of his career.
It would be unwise to expect the same performance from Barkley on Sunday. The journeyman quarterback has completed less than 60% of his passes in his career and has more interceptions (18) than touchdowns (10).
Barkley faces a Jacksonville defense that ranks sixth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA and is top 10 against the run and pass.
Underrated Week 12 Teams
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers
- NFL Power Rating spread: -4.7
- Current Spread: -3
- Value on: Bucs
- Time: Nov. 22, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
This is a game few are betting. In fact, bettors are largely ignoring this game, though it could be one offering gamblers the most value.
Tampa is favored by the standard home-field advantage but the power rankings have the Bucs winning by 4.7 points, on average.
The Action Network’s NFL simulations also see value in Dirk Koetter’s team, projecting Tampa Bay to win by 5.4 points.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Arizona Cardinals
- NFL Power Rating spread: -13.2
- Current Spread: -12
- Value on: Chargers
- Time: Nov. 22, 4:05 p.m. ET (FOX)
How can you trust LA as a double-digit favorite one week after blowing a 19-7 lead to lose outright as a 7.5-point favorite? It’s important to not overreact to one game.
Had Brandon McManus missed his field goal as time expired or the Chargers played a cleaner game (two turnovers, 14 penalties) we might be talking about LA as being overvalued in Week 12.
The Bolts are clearly the better team and recent performance has this number lower than it should be.