- Using The Action Network's NFL Power Ratings, we look at the teams the public are overrating and underrating in Week 11.
- Comparing our Power Ratings to current point spreads reveals the biggest differences in the perception of the betting market to real value.
Bettors are confident that they know which teams will cover the spread during Week 11.
Ten of the 13 NFL games feature one team receiving at least 60% of spread tickets and six teams are receiving lopsided betting action – at least 70% of spread bets.
Which of these popular picks are being overvalued by casual bettors?
By comparing the projected point spread created using The Action Network’s NFL Power Rankings to the consensus number, we can determine which teams the public is overrating and underrating in Week 11.
Note: As of Tuesday afternoon, Ravens-Bengals is currently off the board due to Joe Flacco’s injury.
Overrated Week 11 Teams
Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars
- NFL Power Rating spread: -3.6
- Current Spread: -6
- Value on: Jaguars
- Time: Nov. 18, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Pittsburgh has won and covered five consecutive games. On average, the Steelers (6-3 against the spread) are covering by 5.2 points per game.
Since 2003, it has been profitable to fade teams that are covering the spread by five or more points after the first month of the season: 369-296-18 (56%) ATS, according to Bet Labs.